revenue
3–3.4 $billion
FY 2025
official guidance
WEX INC.
Last · NYSE$174.59-0.12 (-0.07%)close · yahoo · 7h ago
Market cap$5.95B34.1M sh
P/E · TTM17.4fwd 8.2 · eps 10.03
Beta0.84vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$125.29$203.99
Volume533.1Ksession
| Revenue | $2.8B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $361.3M |
| Net income | $186.2M |
| Free cash flow | $-489.4M |
| Operating margin | 12.9% |
| Net margin | 6.7% |
| Return on equity | 13.8% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Hold: Tronox delivered Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $129 million, up 37% year over year, but 2025 guidance is broad at $3.0-$3.4 billion of revenue and $525-$625 million of adjusted EBITDA, with free cash flow expected roughly flat at the midpoint. The upside case is anti-dumping-driven volume recovery and $125-$175 million of sustainable cost improvements by year-end 2026; however, pricing remains under pressure, mining costs create a $50-$60 million 2025 headwind, and leverage remains elevated at 4.8x.
Themes
- Tio2 Pricing
- Zircon Volumes
- Anti Dumping
- Mining Transition
- Cost Improvement
- Free Cash Flow
Near term
Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be roughly flat to slightly down sequentially from Q4, reflecting 1%-2% pricing pressure, mining-transition costs, employee-cost resets, and a $7-$10 million Botlek outage impact.
Fairbreeze is expected online mid-year and East OFS toward year-end; the $50-$60 million mining-cost headwind is expected to be heaviest in Q1, moderate in Q2, and largely reverse in 2026.
Brazil and Europe are already seeing anti-dumping benefits, while definitive Indian duties could begin in Q2; India’s duties were proposed at roughly $500-$600 per ton on Chinese suppliers.
TiO2 and zircon volumes are expected to improve, with high-single-digit year-over-year growth indicated for Q1; the high end of annual guidance depends primarily on stronger volume and pricing in the second half.
Longer term
The $125-$175 million cost program is primarily efficiency-driven rather than volume-dependent, but management expects only $25-$30 million of run-rate benefit in 2025, with most delivered in 2026.
Vertical integration remains a structural advantage, historically worth $300-$400 per ton, but that benefit is temporarily reduced while Tronox transitions to higher-grade ore bodies.
Debt paydown is a stated priority once markets recover, with a mid- to long-term target of less than 3x net leverage; achieving it depends on recovery and sustained free-cash-flow improvement.
Chinese TiO2 capacity and production remain a competitive risk. Management cited signs of production pullbacks, but could not establish whether these are temporary reductions or permanent mothballing.
Red flags
The annual guidance range is unusually wide and assumes a stronger second half, with pricing still declining in Q1 and the recovery cadence dependent on uncertain market conditions.
Analysts repeatedly challenged the company on high inventories, recurring working-capital consumption, mining-cost inflation, and the subdued guidance; management offered improvement targets but limited quantified evidence on timing beyond 2025.
Net debt was $2.7 billion and 2024 free cash flow was negative $70 million. 2025 capex is guided at $375-$395 million, net cash interest at approximately $130 million, and free cash flow only roughly flat at the midpoint.
The $125-$175 million savings target is not yet fully validated through realized results; most benefits are back-end loaded to 2026 and require operational, technology, supply-chain, and SG&A execution.
The dividend is being maintained despite flat-to-negative cash-generation risk, which limits balance-sheet repair while leverage is still 4.8x.
Forward outlook
ebitda
525–625 $million
FY 2025
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$5.65
Est. revenue
749.0M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags