eps diluted
2.4–2.7 $per share
FY 2011
official guidance
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
Last · —$32.05-0.03 (-0.09%)live · yahoo · 0s ago
Market cap$1.10B—
P/E · TTM28.6fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
| Revenue | $338.2M |
|---|---|
| Net income | $18.4M |
| Free cash flow | $23.1M |
| Net margin | 5.4% |
| Return on equity | 1.1% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong asset economics are offset by heavy capital needs and unresolved JV execution risk.
Hold: National Fuel has a compelling Marcellus position, with fiscal 2011 EPS guidance of $2.40-$2.70, expected 30% production growth, and well breakevens of roughly $2.00-$2.30/Mcfe.
However, the growth plan requires $605-$740 million of capital against only $598 million of expected operating cash flow, while the potentially transformative JV remains unpriced, unsized, and uncommitted; the stock is not a clean buy without better visibility on funding and execution.
Themes
- Marcellus Shale
- Eog Joint Venture
- Pipeline And Storage
- Midstream Gathering
- Fiscal 2011 Guidance
- Capital Intensity
Near term
Fiscal 2011 production ramp: management targets 60-70 Bcf of Seneca production and reaching 100 MMcfe/d during the year, but only 15 of 29 Seneca-operated wells drilled in fiscal 2010 were online at the call.
Pipeline and Storage earnings are expected to decline in fiscal 2011 due to $4.5 million of Niagara turnback revenue losses, with another $6 million expected in fiscal 2012 before new projects begin contributing.
Trout Run and other gathering and takeaway projects are targeted for 2011 service; delays would constrain Marcellus production growth and returns.
Gas-price sensitivity remains material despite hedging: approximately 45% of production was hedged for fiscal 2011, against guidance assumptions of $4 gas and $80 oil.
Longer term
The core asset is unusually attractive: 745,000 prospective net Marcellus acres, 94% average net revenue interest, mostly fee acreage, and estimated Marcellus resource potential of 8-15 Tcf.
The EOG joint venture has demonstrated improving well results, with its latest four wells averaging 8.2 MMcf/d, but a new JV could accelerate drilling over the next decade only if a suitable partner and price are secured.
Pipeline and gathering infrastructure could create a structural advantage because National Fuel can connect Seneca production and third-party volumes to southern markets and Canada under long-term contracts.
The regulated Utility provides earnings stability, but it is mature: market saturation exceeds 95%, usage per account is declining, and Pennsylvania revenue decoupling remains uncertain.
Marcellus development economics may remain robust at low gas prices, but the company is increasingly exposed to unconventional decline rates, execution risk, and future gas-market oversupply.
Red flags
The company expects nearly $400 million of cash-flow funding shortfall in fiscal 2011, plans to use about $333 million of cash and short-term debt, and is increasing capital spending sharply before the new pipeline projects generate meaningful revenue.
Management repeatedly emphasized JV upside while disclosing no partner, acreage sale price, upfront proceeds, carried interest, drilling commitments, or timing. The CEO explicitly said timing is secondary to getting the right price and partner.
Analysts challenged the reported $1.80/Mcfe finding and development cost; management acknowledged Marcellus run-rate F&D may be around $1/Mcfe but explained the consolidated figure using reserve-booking timing and higher-cost California activity rather than providing a clean Marcellus figure.
The company has limited production history: only a minority of drilled wells were online, and management did not provide the number of wells underpinning the 60-70 Bcf outlook. The cited shale decline profile includes roughly 70% first-year decline.
Management itself warned that abundant Marcellus supply could devalue storage assets and pressure legacy pipeline economics. Utility bypass, capacity turnbacks, and changing supply flows remain unresolved structural risks.
A possible 5% Pennsylvania severance tax was described as manageable, but the company did not quantify the impact on project-level returns beyond saying it would reduce high-IRR projects by some percentage points.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
30 pct
FY 2011
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-02-26
- Operating Cf Burn
- Cash Conversion Weak
- Cash Runway Low
Red flags
- Operating Cf Burn — Negative operating cash flow
- Cash Conversion Weak — Cash conversion (CFO/Rev) -207.6%
- Cash Runway Low — Cash runway ~0.5 years
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$1.20
Est. revenue
324.7M
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer webcast
Earnings Conference Call
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Conference Call Transcript
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Earnings Conference Call of Q2 2026, jsp?ei=1752016&tp_key=91f9b11ccb file
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Conference Call Transcript
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Earnings Conference Call
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Earnings Conference Call
WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.
Documents
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