Waste Connections, Inc.

Recommendation history

• Q2 2026HoldHold: Waste Connections delivered a strong Q2, with revenue up 6.4% to $2.562 billion, adjusted EBITDA up 6.8% to $840.1 million and margin at 32.8%, while raising 2026 revenue guidance to $10.02-$10.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $3.33-$3.34 billion. However, volumes fell 1.9%, fuel-driven churn increased, and the core-price-to-yield spread remains only about 100 basis points versus roughly 200 basis points at some peers; the execution is excellent, but the call did not establish enough cyclical volume recovery or valuation support for a fresh buy.
• Q1 2026BuyWCN merits a buy after a strong Q1: revenue rose 6.4% to $2.371 billion, adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $769.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32.5%, while core pricing of 6% supports the high end of the 5%–5.5% 2026 pricing outlook. The main tension is timing rather than demand destruction: fuel recovery will pressure Q2 margins, with management indicating roughly $60 million–$70 million of incremental fuel surcharges flowing through the P&L over three quarters, while Chiquita Canyon still carries $100 million–$150 million of 2026 free-cash-flow impact.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Q3 was strong, with revenue of $2.458 billion (+5.1%), adjusted EBITDA of $830.3 million and a 33.8% margin, while core pricing reached 6.3% and underlying solid-waste margins expanded roughly 80 bps. The bull case is durable pricing, improving labor productivity, robust M&A and a preliminary 2026 framework for mid-single-digit revenue growth; the tension is that volumes fell 2.7%, commodities remain a drag, Chiquita outlays are still ahead of plan, and management has not provided formal 2026 guidance.
• Q2 2025BuyBuy: Waste Connections beat Q2 expectations with $2.407 billion of revenue, $786.4 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 32.7% margin, and $699 million of year-to-date adjusted free cash flow, while maintaining 2025 guidance of approximately $9.45 billion revenue, $3.12 billion EBITDA, and 33.0% margin. Pricing, retention, and cost execution remain strong, but the stock still faces soft construction volumes, weaker commodities/RINs, E&P cyclicality, Chiquita uncertainty, and a near-term Q3 volume trough.
• Q1 2025BuyBuy: Waste Connections delivered a strong Q1 with revenue of $2.228 billion (+7.5%), adjusted EBITDA of $712.2 million (+9.5%), and a 32.0% margin, beating outlook despite weather-driven volume pressure. The investment case remains attractive on 6.9% core pricing, improving retention, $125 million of annualized acquisitions already closed, and reiterated 2025 adjusted free cash flow guidance of $1.3-$1.35 billion; the key tension is that underlying volume remains roughly 2% negative after weather and deliberate contract shedding.
• Q4 2024BuyWaste Connections delivered a strong Q4, with revenue up 11% to $2.26 billion, adjusted EBITDA up 11.6% to $732 million, and 32.4% margin. 2025 guidance calls for $9.45-$9.6 billion of revenue, $3.12-$3.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and 33.0%-33.3% margin; the core margin and cash-generation trajectory remain attractive despite expected volume declines and Chiquita-related costs. The call supports a buy stance, though near-term upside depends on commodities, RINs, FX, and continued acquisition execution.
• Q3 2024BuyBuy: Waste Connections delivered a strong Q3, with revenue of $2.338 billion (+13.3%), adjusted EBITDA of $787.4 million (+17.3%), and a 33.7% margin, prompting another increase to 2024 guidance of approximately $8.9 billion revenue and $2.91 billion EBITDA. The core thesis remains attractive: 6.8% pricing, improving volumes, lower employee turnover, and record M&A support high-single-digit 2025 EBITDA growth; the main tensions are falling commodity values, special-waste timing, acquisition dilution, and continued cost inflation.