VEON LTD.

Recommendation history

• Q3 2025BuyVEON delivered a strong Q3: revenue rose 7.5% year over year to $1.115 billion, EBITDA increased 19.7% to $524 million, and direct digital revenue grew 63% to $198 million. Management raised FY2025 local-currency EBITDA-growth guidance to 16–18% while maintaining revenue growth guidance of 13–15%; improving margins, 1.13x leverage, and the Kyivstar stake support a buy, although digital profitability, Pakistan credit risk, and Ukraine cash restrictions remain key tensions.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: VEON delivered strong Q3 top-line growth, with revenue up 9.8% in USD and 14.1% in local currency, while direct digital revenue rose 35.1% in USD. However, reported EBITDA fell 1.5%, margin declined 4.9 percentage points to 42.2%, and management cut 2024 local-currency EBITDA growth guidance to 9–11% from 18–20%, leaving execution and cash conversion insufficient for a clean buy.
• Q4 2023HoldHold: VEON delivered strong 2023 execution, with normalized local-currency revenue up 18%, EBITDA up 20%, free cash flow up 53% to $434 million, and net leverage reduced to 1.42x. The 2024 outlook remains attractive at 16%-18% revenue growth and 18%-20% EBITDA growth, but reported-dollar growth was only 1%, $1.64 billion of debt matures in 2025, and the key deleveraging catalyst—tower sales—remains unquantified and unproven.
• Q3 2023HoldVEON delivered a strong operational quarter—Q3 revenue rose 19.3% to $945 million in local currency terms, normalized EBITDA grew 27%, and pro forma net leverage fell to 1.21x excluding leases after the Russia exit. However, refinancing and cash-access questions remain unresolved, while digital-asset monetization is still prospective rather than demonstrated; without valuation support, the improved fundamentals justify a hold rather than a fresh buy.
• Q1 2026HoldVEON delivered a strong Q1: revenue rose 17%, EBITDA 17.7% to $517 million, EBITDA margin reached 43%, and equity-free cash flow increased 73.4% to $246 million. However, the raised 2026 revenue-growth outlook of 11%-14% came without an EBITDA-guidance increase, and management could not reconcile the implied margin pressure; geopolitical, energy-cost and Pakistan capex risks keep this from being a clean buy.
• Q2 2024HoldVEON delivered a strong Q2, with reported revenue up 12.1%, EBITDA up 10.6% to $459 million, and local-currency revenue growth of 15.1%; digital revenues reached $108 million in the quarter and exceeded 10% of first-half revenue. However, high-cost debt, geopolitical exposure, the $10 million Bangladesh disruption, and limited disclosure around cash upstreaming and 2025 refinancing keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy after the call.
• Q1 2024BuyBuy: VEON delivered 15% organic US-dollar revenue growth excluding Ukraine, while normalized Q1 revenue and EBITDA grew 17% year over year and management reiterated 2024 guidance of 16%-18% revenue growth and 18%-20% EBITDA growth. The tension is that reported EBITDA was essentially flat, margin fell 2.6 points to 41%, and the balance sheet still carries 8% average debt cost with only 2.8 years of average maturity; execution and digital monetization must now convert the growth into cash and valuation upside.