revenue
15.6–15.8 $billion
Q3 2027
official guidance
THE TJX COMPANIES
Last · NYSE$142.80+1.31 (+0.93%)close · yahoo · 12h ago
Market cap$157.75B1.10B sh
P/E · TTM26.4fwd 24.7 · eps 5.40
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield1.28%annual · TTM
52w range
$122.78$170.00
Volume5.1Msession
| Revenue | $62.4B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $5.9B |
| Net income | $6.1B |
| Free cash flow | $5.9B |
| Operating margin | 9.4% |
| Net margin | 9.7% |
| Return on equity | 57.0% |
| Period | TTM 2026-08-01 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Constructive quarter, but not a clean aggressive-buy signal:
TJX delivered 4% consolidated comps, 11% adjusted EPS growth to $1.22, and expanded adjusted pretax margin 50 bps to 11.9%, prompting only a modest $0.05 increase to FY27 EPS guidance of $5.15-$5.20. HomeGoods, Canada, and International are gaining share, but Marmaxx—the largest division—managed only a 1% comp because of an acknowledged merchandise-mix execution failure, while Q3 EPS guidance implies just 2%-3% growth and margin pressure from fuel and freight.
Near term
Marmaxx is the key stock catalyst: management says comps were positive in May, June, and July and improved in August, but only expects a return toward the normal 2%-3% cadence by Q4. The company did not quantify the affected categories or the expected sales benefit from the fixes.
Q3 guidance calls for 2%-3% comparable-sales growth and $1.30-$1.32 adjusted EPS, with gross margin down 40-50 bps year over year and pretax margin down 30-40 bps, primarily from higher fuel and freight costs.
The strong HomeGoods, Canada, and International trends provide diversification, but investors should watch whether HomeGoods can sustain its 7% comp and whether Marmaxx traffic and transactions recover rather than relying on ticket growth.
Longer term
The raised long-term target of 7,500 stores and planned 4% annual unit growth from next year materially extend the runway, supported by smaller formats, rural locations, and department-store closures. Execution and returns on these incremental stores—not merely site availability—will determine whether this becomes durable EPS growth.
HomeGoods appears to have the strongest structural momentum: a differentiated off-price home assortment, consumables and gifting initiatives, and a 240-bp quarterly segment-margin expansion. Its 2,000-store potential could become a meaningful profit-growth engine if current demand persists.
TJX’s vendor breadth, purchasing flexibility, and international model remain credible advantages, but analysts did not receive evidence that these advantages are widening versus competitors. Management’s claim that Marmaxx comps were identical near and away from direct off-price competitors suggests the moat did not prevent a company-specific execution miss.
Red flags
Management repeatedly declined to identify the Marmaxx categories or specific planning changes, citing competitive sensitivity. The explanation may be credible, but it leaves investors unable to independently assess the size, duration, or recurrence risk of the problem.
The Marmaxx weakness was attributed to what the company did not have in inventory rather than pricing, conversion, or traffic. Because transactions declined and management lacks store traffic counters, the call did not establish whether customer engagement is fully intact.
The quarter’s gross-margin upside was substantially helped by tariff-related merchandise-margin favorability, while the back half faces fuel, driver-availability, and freight pressure. The modest FY EPS raise despite the Q2 beat indicates limited incremental confidence in second-half operating leverage.
The 7,500-store target and 4% opening rate are ambitious relative to the current 5,285-store base. Management cited strong new-store performance and merchandise availability but provided no quantified unit economics, cannibalization data, or return thresholds for the expanded footprint.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
3–5 pct
Q3 2027
official guidance
gross margin
32.1–32.2 pct
Q3 2027
official guidance
operating margin
12.3–12.4 pct
Q3 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
1.3–1.32 $per share
Q3 2027
official guidance
revenue
63.4–63.8 $billion
FY 2027
official guidance
revenue growth
5–6 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
gross margin
31.2–31.3 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
operating margin
12–12.1 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
5.15–5.2 $per share
FY 2027
official guidance
operating margin
11.9–12 pct
Q4 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
1.44–1.47 $per share
Q4 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-03-31
- Off Price Model
- Comparable Sales
- Inventory Growth
- Tariff Uncertainty
- Settlement Gain
- Debt Maturity
- Store Expansion
Red flags
- Average per-store inventories increased 10% year over year while sales grew 7%, raising the risk of slower turns or markdown pressure if demand softens.
- Fiscal 2026 included a $419 million net litigation settlement gain, partly offset by $116 million of incentive compensation and $82 million of discretionary bonuses, making reported margin and EPS less representative of recurring earnings.
- TJX had $2.878 billion of total debt, including $999 million classified as current and maturing in fiscal 2027; refinancing is manageable but creates a near-term cash and interest-rate decision.
- The company identifies tariff exposure across direct and indirect imports, vendor and competitor pricing, consumer demand, tariff pass-throughs, and retaliatory tariffs, with the ultimate impact still unresolved.
- Cybersecurity and IT disruption risk is material because point-of-sale, e-commerce, inventory, logistics, and supplier systems are operationally interdependent; the filing notes controls vary in maturity and require ongoing investment.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$1.34
Est. revenue
15.9B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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