ebitda
4.5 $billion
FY 2027
official guidance
PHILLIPS 66
Last · NYSE$289.10-8.195 (-2.76%)live · yahoo · 1h ago
Market cap$115.35B399.0M sh
P/E · TTM16.3fwd 9.7 · eps 17.77
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield1.66%annual · TTM
52w range
$126.92$297.42
Volume2.0Msession
| Revenue | $152.2B |
|---|---|
| Net income | $7.1B |
| Net margin | 4.7% |
| Return on equity | 22.5% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
Loading chart…
OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Positive operating setup and visible deleveraging catalysts outweigh the execution and macro risks.
Buy: Phillips 66 presented a credible earnings and deleveraging improvement path, supported by healthy refining margins, midstream EBITDA expected to reach $4.5 billion by year-end 2027, and Rodeo tracking toward its roughly $700 million mid-cycle EBITDA framework. The key tension is execution: debt was $27.1 billion at quarter-end and the path to $19 billion by year-end 2026 depends on roughly $8 billion of cash release, while refining and chemicals remain cyclical.
Themes
- Refining Margins
- Deleveraging
- Midstream Growth
- Rodeo Renewables
- Western Gateway
- N E L Capacity
Near term
Refining margins should remain constructive if global capacity stays constrained and Middle East/Russian disruptions persist.
Inventory and collateral cash releases, together with operating cash flow, are the near-term drivers of progress toward the $19 billion year-end 2026 debt objective.
Western Gateway could reach FID within the next couple of months, creating a catalyst if agreements with Kinder Morgan are finalized.
Rodeo’s improving utilization, feedstock optimization and stronger renewable-credit economics should support cash-flow improvement through 2026.
Longer term
Midstream growth is supported by Iron Mesa, the Epic debottleneck, Pinnacle optimization, additional Permian gas capacity and the Corpus Christi fractionator.
The Central Corridor refining integration across Wood River, Ponca City and Borger could improve crude flexibility, product logistics and margin resilience.
A $17 billion gross-debt target would leave steady midstream and Marketing and Specialties earnings covering the balance sheet, reducing dependence on refining and chemicals.
Phillips 66’s North American crude access and logistics flexibility are a competitive advantage during global supply disruptions, though not an outright moat against refining-cycle deterioration.
Red flags
The $8 billion deleveraging bridge is partly dependent on lower inventory valuations, reduced collateral needs and releasing excess cash reserves; those benefits are market-sensitive rather than fully operational.
Management dismissed concerns about Permian NGL overbuilding and ethane rejection largely by citing producer volume growth, without quantifying downside scenarios for utilization or returns.
Western Gateway still requires final agreements and FID; the 2029 in-service timing remains exposed to execution and permitting risk despite management’s confidence.
Management cited healthy refining margins and a constructive near- to medium-term outlook, but provided no earnings or margin guidance and remains exposed to crude differentials, global capacity restarts and demand volatility.
Forward outlook
ebitda
0.7 $billion
FY 2026
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$9.25
Est. revenue
42.2B
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- Satelight
Trump summons US refiners as Iran war pushes up fuel prices
- Satelight
Refining crunch keeps fuel prices high as crude retreats
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags