revenue
205–209 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC.
Last · NasdaqGS$10.20+0.08 (+0.79%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$526.52M51.6M sh
P/E · TTM19.6fwd 29.1 · eps 0.52
Beta1.21vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$4.58$10.50
Volume327.0Ksession
| Revenue | $101.3M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $3.8M |
| Net income | $4.4M |
| Free cash flow | $17.0M |
| Operating margin | 3.7% |
| Net margin | 4.4% |
| Return on equity | 3.2% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
cautious buy, but not a clean setup.
Q2 product revenue rose to $53.6 million, U.S. demand increased 11% year over year and ex-factory bottles rose 12%, prompting management to raise FY2026 product-revenue guidance to $205–$209 million and net-income guidance to $17–$20 million. The main tension is that growth remains modest, new prescriptions fell 6% sequentially, gross-to-net reached 27.9%, royalty revenue guidance was cut, and the company still needs convincing alisertib data before its clinical investment becomes value-accretive.
Themes
- Nerlynx Demand
- Alisertib
- Small Cell Lung Cancer
- Breast Cancer Trials
- Royalty Risk
- Debt Free
Near term
Q3 product-revenue guidance of $54–$56 million implies limited sequential growth after a strong Q2, while Q3 net-income guidance of only $2–$2.5 million could expose the sensitivity of earnings to rebates, inventory and trial spending.
Track whether the 11% year-over-year U.S. demand growth persists without further specialty-distributor inventory support; management estimated only a $1.3 million inventory drawdown in Q2 and roughly three weeks of channel inventory.
Higher Medicaid mix drove gross-to-net to 27.9%; the FY2026 expectation of 26.5%–27.5% remains a material earnings variable.
ALISCA-Breast1 enrollment under the amended protocol is expected to resume in Q3, and ALISCA-Lung2 is also planned to start in Q3.
Longer term
NERLYNX is showing its first expected two consecutive years of U.S. demand growth, but the commercial trajectory is still low-growth and dependent on execution, dose escalation, GPO/340B demand and persistence rather than a clearly expanding market.
Alisertib could materially change the company: management says it can fund Phase 3 trials in both breast and small-cell lung cancer, potentially beginning next year, but this depends on preliminary biomarker signals holding up in larger datasets.
The company became debt-free after repaying the final $11.1 million Athyrium principal installment, improving strategic flexibility and allowing cash flow to fund trials or acquisitions.
Management is evaluating commercial and development-stage oncology assets for licensing or acquisition; this could diversify Puma but also introduces capital-allocation and execution risk.
Red flags
The claimed alisertib opportunity is based on preliminary biomarker activity; management did not provide quantitative efficacy, durability or statistical detail on this call. Additional interim breast data and initial Lung2 data are not expected until 2027.
China royalty revenue may decline if generic NERLYNX reaches the contractual market-share threshold, which management said could occur in late 2026 or 2027; the size of the potential reduction was not quantified.
New prescriptions declined 6% sequentially even as total prescriptions rose, suggesting refill or persistence dynamics are doing more work than new-patient acquisition.
Royalty guidance was lowered to $19–$22 million from $20–$23 million, and Q3 royalty guidance is only $2–$3 million. The call offered no detailed explanation beyond the broader sublicense and generic exposure.
R&D expense is expected to rise 34%–37% year over year as trials advance, while Q2 cash burn was $9.7 million despite reported profitability; the ability to fund two Phase 3 programs and pursue BD without weakening returns remains unproven.
The only analyst question focused on future R&D spending and BD. There was no substantive analyst challenge on NERLYNX competitive displacement, the weak new-prescription trend, or the evidentiary bar for alisertib.
Forward outlook
revenue
19–22 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
54–56 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
revenue
2–3 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
eps diluted
17–20 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
eps diluted
2–2.5 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.12
Est. revenue
0