NACCO INDUSTRIES, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldNACCO finished 2025 strongly, with Q4 operating profit up 95% to $7.6 million and adjusted EBITDA up 59% to $14.3 million, but the quarter still produced a $3.8 million net loss after a $6 million after-tax pension termination charge. Management expects meaningful 2026 improvement in consolidated operating profit, net income and EBITDA, led by Utility Coal and Contract Mining, yet Minerals is expected to decline, capital spending could reach $89 million, and key offsets remain unquantified; the risk/reward is not yet a clean buy.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Q3 EBITDA improved sequentially to $12.5 million from $9.3 million and revenue rose 24% year over year to $76.6 million, but operating profit fell to $6.8 million from $19.7 million because of last year’s $13.6 million insurance recovery and ongoing Mississippi Lignite pricing pressure. The growth pipeline is credible—Contract Mining tons rose 20% year over year and the Florida contract begins contributing in Q2 2026—but returns remain below target and the thesis depends on several long-dated, capital-intensive projects executing.
• Q1 2025HoldNACCO delivered a strong Q1 rebound, with operating profit up over 60% to $7.7 million, EBITDA up 14% to $12.8 million, and net income up 7% to $4.9 million. Coal Mining drove the improvement and Mitigation Resources posted a second consecutive profitable quarter, but management only expects a moderate 2025 increase in consolidated operating profit while North American Mining remains soft and a pension termination charge will materially reduce reported net income.
• Q1 2024HoldNACCO delivered a strong operational rebound, with consolidated operating profit up 162% year over year and North American Mining operating profit up 184%, but EBITDA rose only modestly to $11.2 million and net income fell to $4.6 million/$0.61 per share because of a much higher tax rate. The recovery case depends on Red Hills boiler repairs, higher coal deliveries and continued execution in mining, minerals and mitigation; however, management could not quantify EPA compliance costs or fully address the financial strength of the Mississippi customer, so the stock is a hold rather than a clean buy.
• Q3 2023HoldNACCO’s Q3 was severely depressed: a $3.8 million net loss, or $0.51 per share, and only $0.4 million of EBITDA versus $22.1 million a year ago. Management expects a significant 2024 rebound as Mississippi Lignite Mining normalizes and mining growth projects contribute, but the recovery remains dependent on execution, natural-gas prices and an unclosed $37 million minerals acquisition; the call does not yet make the stock a clean buy.
• Q4 2022HoldHold: NACCO delivered strong Q4 results—operating profit rose 44% to $15.5 million, net income increased to $13.8 million ($1.84 per diluted share), and adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $23.6 million—but the 2023 outlook is materially weaker beneath the headline. Excluding the $30.9 million 2022 contract-termination settlement, management expects net income to decrease substantially as minerals royalties and coal earnings decline; the balance sheet is strong, but the recovery case depends on execution at North American Mining and eventual Thacker Pass growth.
• Q1 2022HoldHold: NACCO delivered a strong Q1, with operating profit rising to $14.9 million from $8.3 million, net income to $12.6 million ($1.72 per share), and EBITDA up 48% to $21.4 million. However, management expects full-year consolidated operating profit, net income, and EBITDA to decline excluding one-time settlement payments, as coal demand weakens in the second half and capital spending rises; minerals and North American Mining provide the offset but remain less proven.