revenue
134.5–135.5 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
N-ABLE, INC.
Last · —$4.44-0.09 (-1.99%)live · yahoo · 0s ago
Market cap$838.74M—
P/E · TTM—fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
| Revenue | $530.0M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $27.5M |
| Net income | $77,000 |
| Free cash flow | $32.5M |
| Operating margin | 5.2% |
| Net margin | 0.0% |
| Return on equity | 0.0% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Wait rather than buy after the call.
Q2 revenue grew 5.9% to $138.2M, ARR grew 5.7% constant currency to $544.5M, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.9%, but 103% NRR, mid-80s renewal rates in UEM/EDR, pricing pressure, and reduced full-year revenue guidance to $539M-$542M point to a real growth problem. The bull case is faster-growing Cove Data Protection, Security Operations traction, cost savings, and new AI-led products; the key tension is that management’s recovery case depends on execution during a CRO transition and restructuring, while guidance assumes no improvement in renewals or demand.
Themes
- Renewal Rates
- Uem
- Edr
- Cove Data Protection
- Security Operations
- Cro Transition
Near term
Q3 guidance implies only 3%-4% constant-currency revenue growth, while adjusted EBITDA guidance of $41M-$42M implies a stronger 30%-31% margin through cost discipline rather than accelerating demand.
The 6% headcount reduction and expected $11M-$13M of annualized operating-expense savings could support earnings, but $4M-$6M of restructuring charges are expected in the second half of 2026.
Renewal performance in UEM and EDR remains the immediate stock catalyst; management has assumed similar mid-80s renewal rates for the rest of the year rather than forecasting a recovery.
DRaaS, Google Workspace Backup, incident response, and FedRAMP EDR are expected to contribute only modestly near term; management said DRaaS generated no Q2 revenue and did not quantify second-half contribution.
Longer term
Cove Data Protection ARR above $200M is growing faster than the company average and led net new ARR growth, providing the clearest evidence of a viable expansion engine.
Security Operations appears to be gaining traction, including a large new deal and protection of more than 3 million identities, but management did not quantify its growth or market-share gains.
The 2027 thesis depends on Enzo, autonomous agents, Entra ID coverage, and broader Security Operations expansion improving cross-sell and NRR; management’s own timing implies the payoff is not yet visible in 2026.
Competitive risk is concentrated in UEM and EDR: management acknowledged pricing pressure, lower-price renewals, and some EDR customers moving to other providers, while one UEM competitor is reportedly gaining share in the mid-market.
AI-generated code represented 47% of committed Q2 code and allegedly accelerated some releases 10x-12x, but this is an internal productivity claim rather than evidence of customer monetization or product-market advantage.
Red flags
The largest renewal cohort produced rates in the mid-80s versus expectations in the high-80s, driving weaker net new ARR and the guidance reset.
Management attributed weakness to pricing and customer quantity changes, making the underlying level of customer loss difficult to assess; it acknowledged that some EDR customers migrated to competing providers.
The full-year guide assumes similar renewal rates and demand for the remainder of 2026 and explicitly includes no improved execution, leaving limited evidence of an operational recovery.
A new CRO, a 6% workforce reduction, product launches, and go-to-market realignment are occurring simultaneously, raising near-term execution and organizational disruption risk.
Gross margin fell to 80.2% from 82% due to weaker renewal rates in specific cohorts, suggesting the problem is affecting both growth quality and profitability.
The company remains leveraged at approximately 1.8x net debt despite $116M of cash, limiting flexibility if growth weakens further or restructuring costs rise.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
3–4 pct
Q3 2026
official guidance
adjusted eps
—
Q3 2026
official guidance
ebitda
41–42 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
revenue
539–542 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
5–5 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
ebitda
158–161 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K/A · 2026-08-10
- Recurring Revenue Growth
- Net Retention Pressure
- Adlumin Integration
- Margin Compression
- Leveraged Balance Sheet
- Material Weakness
- Revenue Recognition
- Goodwill Impairment Risk
Red flags
- Management identified a material weakness in revenue controls for subscription arrangements processed manually outside the ERP system; prior-period and 2025 interim financial statements were revised for immaterial errors, and the weakness could allow a material misstatement to go undetected.
- 2025 net loss was $18.8 million, or $(0.10) per diluted share, versus $30.7 million of net income, or $0.16 per diluted share, in 2024.
- Total cost of revenue increased 45.1% to $117.4 million against 9.3% revenue growth, driven partly by $14.4 million of higher cloud infrastructure, hosting fees, and royalties and $13.4 million of additional acquired-technology amortization.
- Debt rose from $338.6 million at December 31, 2024 to $400.0 million at December 31, 2025; interest expense increased 19.9% to $36.0 million, including fees related to the debt amendment.
- The $400 million term loan and $60 million revolving facility carry variable-rate exposure, while the company held $68.2 million in money-market funds, leaving substantial net debt relative to current cash liquidity.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.10
Est. revenue
135.0M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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