MOODY'S CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025BuyBuy. Moody’s delivered a record 2025 with revenue above $7.7 billion, up 9%, adjusted operating margin of 51.1% and adjusted diluted EPS of $14.94, up 20%. The 2026 outlook supports continued compounding—EPS of $16.40-$17.00, margin of 52%-53%, free cash flow of $2.8-$3.0 billion and roughly $2.0 billion of buybacks—but the key tension is that Ratings remains issuance-cycle sensitive while Analytics’ AI opportunity is still more evidenced by customer anecdotes than by separately quantified revenue.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Moody’s delivered a resilient Q2, with revenue up 4% to $1.9 billion, adjusted operating margin at 50.9% (+130 bps), and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.56 (+9%). Moody’s Analytics remains the key bull case—11% revenue growth, 8% organic recurring-revenue growth, and 32.1% margin—while Ratings was flat amid issuance volatility; full-year EPS growth is guided to 10% at the midpoint, but macro-sensitive issuance and an unquantified competitive risk in AI/data temper the case for adding aggressively.
• Q3 2024BuyBuy: Moody’s delivered a broad-based Q3 beat, with revenue up 23% to $1.8 billion, adjusted diluted EPS up 32%, and adjusted operating margin near 48%. Management raised FY2024 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.90-$12.10, MIS revenue growth to the high-20s percentage range, and company revenue growth to the high-teens, though the ratings surge remains materially exposed to issuance cyclicality and M&A recovery.
• Q3 2025HoldNational Fuel delivered a strong quarter—adjusted EPS was $2.71, up 13%, with approximately $160 million of free cash flow—and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance remains $7.45-$7.75, implying roughly 10% growth at the midpoint. However, lower gas-price assumptions, a 3% production-guidance cut, unresolved Gen 4 economics, and up to $1.5 billion of planned financing for the Ohio acquisition make the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.