adjusted eps
1.45–1.51 $per share
FY 2026
official guidance
HORMEL FOODS CORPORATION
Last · NYSE$20.19+0.38 (+1.92%)live · yahoo · 1h ago
Market cap$11.11B550.4M sh
P/E · TTM32.6fwd 12.9 · eps 0.62
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield5.90%annual · TTM
52w range
$18.96$26.60
Volume6.7Msession
| Revenue | $12.1B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $573.9M |
| Net income | $398.8M |
| Free cash flow | $780.9M |
| Operating margin | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 3.3% |
| Return on equity | 5.1% |
| Period | TTM 2026-07-26 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Hold, not a clear buy.
Hormel raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.45-$1.51 and expects $12.1-$12.2 billion of sales, but the organic sales outlook was narrowed to 1%-2% while Q3 organic sales fell 2% and retail volumes declined sharply. Foodservice momentum, lower pork costs and strong cash generation support the bull case; sustained consumer pressure, elevated freight/fuel costs and an unproven retail recovery remain the central tensions.
Near term
Q4 adjusted EPS is framed around approximately $0.37 at the midpoint and $0.40 at the high end, with upside dependent on retail volume recovery, greater advertising support and lower pork costs.
The stock may react to whether Q4 organic sales can rebound from Q3's 2% decline; analysts explicitly questioned the implied acceleration, but management offered qualitative rather than quarter-to-date evidence.
Lower pork costs should provide a delayed benefit, but elevated logistics and fuel expenses are already incorporated into the outlook and could limit operating leverage.
Increased Q4 advertising and marketing spending may support priority brands, but it could also reduce the near-term benefit from SG&A savings.
Longer term
Foodservice is the strongest structural asset, with 12 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth and profit growth outpacing sales through mix and profitability management.
Portfolio exits—including whole-bird turkey, private-label snack nuts and Brazil—could improve business quality and reduce volatility, but they also lower the reported growth base and leave more dependence on Jennie-O, Applegate, Refrigerated Entrees and other priority brands.
Management's FY2027 framework includes favorable pork-cost carryover and a 53rd week, but it also assumes no meaningful consumer improvement and continued pressure from logistics, grain and beef costs.
The new CEO's stated priorities—simplification, execution and sharper capital allocation—could improve returns, but the call provided no quantified medium-term targets or evidence that the retail execution issues are fully resolved.
A strong balance sheet and $840 million of cash provide M&A flexibility, though disciplined deployment matters because acquisitions could reintroduce the complexity and volatility management is currently removing.
Red flags
The most important Q4 sales assumption is a sequential retail improvement after a significant volume decline, yet management did not quantify current retail trends or provide concrete evidence that the recovery is underway.
Analysts repeatedly pressed on volume, freight and input-cost offsets. Management confirmed lower pork costs are favorable but acknowledged that weaker volumes reduce both sales contribution and plant throughput, making the earnings uplift less secure.
International results were unusually noisy: management said the legal-entity transition caused the majority of the tonnage decline but would not quantify the impact, limiting visibility into the underlying run rate.
The consumer environment is explicitly expected to remain strained, with no meaningful improvement anticipated in upcoming quarters; the answer relied heavily on brand positioning and value propositions rather than demonstrated broad-based volume recovery.
Supply-chain costs included lower plant utilization, operational inefficiencies, adverse turkey conditions and weather-related outages. Management characterized several items as temporary, but the call did not establish a firm timeline or quantified savings from the new planning processes.
Forward outlook
revenue
12100–12200 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
1–2 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.37–0.4 $per share
Q4 2026
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2025-12-05
- Commodity Inflation
- Margin Pressure
- Customer Concentration
- International Impairment
- Transformation Execution
- Volume Decline
Red flags
- Walmart represented approximately 16% of consolidated gross sales, and the top five customers represented approximately 38%, creating meaningful customer concentration.
- The company has $3.764 billion of purchase commitments for hogs, turkeys, feed, and other raw materials, including $1.229 billion due in fiscal 2026, limiting flexibility if demand or input economics deteriorate.
- Fiscal 2025 net earnings fell to $478.2 million from $805.0 million, while reported diluted EPS fell to $0.87 from $1.47; the adjusted decline understates the severity of the impairment and margin shock.