revenue
165–185 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
GRAY MEDIA, INC.
Last · NYSE$4.33-0.17 (-3.78%)close · yahoo · 11h ago
Market cap$445.92M93.1M sh
P/E · TTM-7.7fwd -6.2 · eps -0.56 · loss
Beta1.03vs S&P 500
Div yield7.11%annual · TTM
52w range
$3.55$6.44
Volume934.8Ksession
| Revenue | $3.1B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $392.0M |
| Net income | $-137.0M |
| Free cash flow | $181.0M |
| Operating margin | 12.7% |
| Net margin | -4.4% |
| Return on equity | -4.9% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Hold, not a clean buy.
Q2 was strong—revenue $839M (+9%), adjusted EBITDA $214M (+27%), and political revenue $83M above the $60M-$70M guide—but the result is heavily election-driven, while underlying core advertising was down mid-single digits excluding acquisitions. The key near-term upside is Q3 political revenue of $165M-$185M and debt reduction; the key tension is still-high 5.73x leverage and uncertain post-election earnings power.
Themes
- Political Advertising
- Core Advertising
- Net Retransmission
- Deleveraging
- Broadcasting Ma
- Leverage
Near term
Q3 political revenue is backloaded, with management expecting $165M-$185M and roughly half of the quarter's political revenue historically arriving in September; execution against this range is the main stock catalyst.
Management says essentially all incremental political cash flow will go toward debt reduction, while the board authorized up to $250M of additional debt repurchases through year-end.
Potential refinancing could reduce 2026 interest expense by more than $30M from the current $440M guide, but this depends on market access and the cost of refinancing the 10.5% notes.
The $400M securitization borrowing base may temporarily decline as prepaid political revenue replaces receivables with payment terms, although management expects capacity to recover by year-end.
Longer term
Net retransmission revenue is becoming the most credible structural deleveraging support: Q2 net retransmission revenue was $150M, contracts are largely in place through 2027, and management expects low-single-digit organic growth plus acquired-station contributions.
The acquisition strategy is increasingly focused on combining station operations within existing markets, which could create cost and retransmission synergies, but the benefits are not yet fully visible in reported results.
Digital revenue grew 12% year over year and new local direct business increased 5%; the Quickplay/Google Cloud transition could improve CTV personalization, but management provided no monetization or margin targets.
Management's potential medium-term spectrum-reallocation thesis under ATSC 3.0 is strategically interesting but remains regulatory- and timing-dependent rather than an investable near-term earnings driver.
Local sports and production assets, including the Atlanta Hawks agreement and Assembly Atlanta, diversify the business, but their scale remains modest relative to the $5.87B debt principal.
Red flags
Underlying core advertising remains weak: management acknowledged it would be down mid-single digits excluding acquisitions, and explicitly said the weakness is not solely political crowd-out.
Management could not quantify Q4 political displacement, saying it depends on how aggressively political spending ramps; the same inventory constraint that boosts political revenue can pressure higher-quality recurring core advertising.
The balance sheet remains highly leveraged at 5.73x total net leverage, with $5.87B of debt principal and approximately $440M of guided 2026 interest expense. Deleveraging is therefore dependent on a favorable election cycle and disciplined capital allocation.
The Q2 leverage benefit from acquisitions was 0.18 turns versus an initially expected 0.25 turns, and roughly half of the transaction synergy contribution is still operating-expense rationalization rather than realized results.
The bullish 2027 EBITDA outlook was only 'up slightly' versus 2025 and was explicitly qualified by macro uncertainty, offering limited evidence that acquisitions will overcome the underlying advertising softness.
Management's answers on virtual MVPD mix and Q4 displacement were non-quantitative, limiting visibility into retransmission economics and the post-election revenue reset.
Forward outlook
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.97
Est. revenue
962.0M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Gray Announces $75 Million Incremental Term Loan and Redemption of $150 Million of 2029 Notes
- GlobeNewswire
Gray Announces Closing of Term Loan and Revolving Credit Facility Refinancing
- GlobeNewswire
Gray Media Stations to Simulcast 15 Minnesota Timberwolves Games Free Over-the-Air
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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