EXPEDIA GROUP, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q2 2016HoldHold: Target delivered strong Q3 revenue of $146 million and adjusted EBITDA of $95 million, supported by exceptional visibility—72% of revenue came from committed U.S. government contracts and 73% had minimum revenue commitments. However, the newly awarded Pecos contract’s economic terms remain unfinished, HFS upside appears limited, and the company has not yet demonstrated returns from its proposed $500 million growth pipeline.
• Q1 2012HoldHold. Loews’ disclosed look-through value of public subsidiaries plus cash was approximately $46.55 per share versus a $45.52 share price, only a modest apparent discount before considering $1.8 billion of parent debt and private-asset valuation risk. The portfolio has solid contributors—CNA generated $845 million of 2018 core income, Boardwalk $761 million of EBITDA, and Hotels $228 million of adjusted EBITDA—but Diamond Offshore lost $180 million and remains highly cyclical.
• Q2 2015HoldHold: Snap’s Q3 revenue is tracking roughly flat, a sharp slowdown driven by Apple platform changes, macro pressure and intensifying competition, despite healthy engagement with impressions up approximately 9% and DAUs up 18% year over year to 347 million. The bull case is durable user growth and monetization opportunities in Spotlight, AR and other under-monetized surfaces; the bear case is that direct-response demand and measurement remain impaired, while management did not reaffirm its prior 50% growth ambition or provide formal guidance.
• Q3 2014BuyLoews is a buy on a substantial sum-of-the-parts discount: its $14.0 billion market cap compares with $9.7 billion for the CNA stake, $0.7 billion of parent net cash, and an implied value of only $3.6 billion for its private subsidiaries. The portfolio also offers durable cash generation, including 2022 Boardwalk EBITDA of $892 million and Loews Hotels adjusted EBITDA of $345 million, but the discount will likely persist without stronger capital deployment or clearer private-asset valuation catalysts.
• Q1 2021HoldHOLD: Delta delivered record Q3 revenue of $12.8 billion, up 3% versus 2019 despite 17% less capacity, with an 11.6% operating margin and strong premium and loyalty monetization. The recovery offers substantial earnings upside through network restoration and lower unit costs, but $20.5 billion of adjusted net debt, volatile fuel, regional pilot constraints through 2024–2025, and unproven resilience in a recession make this a recovery story rather than a clean buy.
• Q4 2013HoldHold: National Fuel raised FY2019 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.45-$3.65, while Seneca’s production and capital plans remain intact and more than 85% of remaining fiscal-year gas production is protected by firm sales. The setup is solid but not a clean buy because Pennsylvania basis is weakening and difficult to forecast, while Northern Access and New York regulatory/climate-policy risks remain unresolved.
• Q4 2025BuyBuy: Interface delivered 3.8% currency-neutral sales growth, 5% order growth, a 22% year-to-date backlog increase and adjusted EPS of $0.88, while raising FY2026 sales guidance to $1.455-$1.485 billion and gross-margin guidance to 40.6%. The core 131-basis-point margin improvement from pricing, mix and automation appears durable, but the quarter also benefited from a one-time $15.6 million tariff refund, while raw-material inflation is expected to pressure Q3/Q4 margins.