EVERSOURCE ENERGY

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026HoldHOLD: Q1 adjusted EPS was $1.73 versus $1.50 a year ago, but 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $4.57-$4.72 after the FERC transmission ROE cut to 9.57%, which management estimates will reduce 2026 after-tax earnings by about $70 million. Balance-sheet de-risking is progressing through the Aquarion sale, roughly $2 billion of potential storm-cost securitizations and strong FFO-to-debt metrics, but the investment case still depends on a favorable FERC outcome and successful regulatory execution.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: Eversource delivered 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.76 and guided 2026 EPS to $4.80-$4.95, but the near-term earnings step-up is modest while funding remains equity-intensive. The $26.5 billion 2026-2030 regulated capital plan supports an 8.3% rate-base growth outlook and management targets 5%-7% long-term EPS growth, yet $800 million-$1.1 billion of common equity issuance remains required regardless of the Aquarion outcome, limiting near-term upside.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Eversource delivered modestly improved recurring Q3 EPS of $1.19 versus $1.13 year over year and narrowed 2025 recurring EPS guidance to $4.72-$4.80, while reaffirming 5%-7% long-term EPS growth. The balance-sheet trajectory and Connecticut regulatory reset are encouraging, but credit agencies remain in wait-and-see mode, Revolution Wind still carries execution/liability risk, and Massachusetts regulatory friction clouds the near-term upside.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Eversource delivered a steady Q2, with EPS of $0.96 versus $0.95 year over year, reaffirmed 2025 EPS guidance of $4.67-$4.82, and maintained its 5%-7% long-term EPS growth target. The investment case is improving through a $24.2 billion five-year capital plan, constructive New Hampshire regulation, and stronger cash flow, but Connecticut remains a material overhang: storm-cost securitization now looks more likely in 2027, the $1.2 billion equity need remains in place pending a February refresh, and Aquarion approval is not yet closed.
• Q1 2025BuyBuy: Eversource delivered Q1 recurring EPS of $1.50 versus $1.49 year over year and reaffirmed 2025 EPS guidance of $4.67-$4.82, alongside 5%-7% long-term EPS growth. The core regulated pipes-and-wires story is strengthening through a $24.2 billion five-year capital plan, improving cash flow and expected FFO-to-debt metrics, though Connecticut regulatory uncertainty, equity needs and offshore-wind execution remain material tensions.
• Q4 2024HoldHOLD: Eversource delivered 5.3% 2024 recurring EPS growth to $4.57, but 2025 guidance of $4.67-$4.82 implies another muted year and remains below the company’s 5%-7% long-term target. The $24.2 billion 2025-2029 regulated capital plan and Aquarion sale support the recovery case, but end-2024 FFO/debt was only approximately 10.5%-11% versus Moody’s 13% downgrade threshold, with dilution and regulatory execution still material risks.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: Eversource’s regulated utility thesis is improving, with Q3 recurring EPS of $1.30 versus $0.97 year over year and a $23.7 billion five-year capital plan supporting management’s 5%-7% long-term EPS growth target. However, 2024 recurring EPS guidance was trimmed to $4.52-$4.60 because of higher interest expense, while roughly $1 billion of equity issuance, unresolved Connecticut regulatory issues, and Aquarion-sale dependence keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy.