CNO FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2022BuyBuy: Visa delivered Q4 revenue growth of 11% and non-GAAP EPS growth of 21%, while FY2024 guidance calls for low-double-digit adjusted revenue growth and low-teens adjusted EPS growth. The core thesis remains compelling—payments volume, cross-border, Visa Direct, value-added services, and a $25 billion multiyear buyback—but the near-term setup is softer, with Q1 adjusted revenue growth expected only in the upper-mid- to high-single digits and unresolved U.S. Reg II risk.
• Q2 2021HoldHOLD: Q2 operating EPS was $0.66, up 20% year over year, with a 409% RBC ratio and $105 million returned to shareholders. Sales momentum and capital strength support the case, but the $21 million favorable COVID impact versus a $6 million unfavorable impact last year is temporary, while management expects a modest unfavorable COVID impact in 2022.
• Q1 2021HoldCNO delivered a solid Q1, but the headline $0.59 adjusted operating EPS was helped by temporary COVID-related claims benefits, including $25 million in long-term-care favorable impact, while health sales fell 19%. Life sales rose a record 29%, book value per diluted share excluding AOCI increased 13%, and capital returns were strong, but expected claims normalization, lower investment yields, and unquantified new-business strain argue for waiting rather than buying aggressively.
• Q4 2019HoldHold: Boeing remains a recovery story, but Q2 showed the recovery is still consuming capital rather than generating it. Revenue was $16.9 billion, core EPS was -$2.90, free cash flow was a $4.3 billion outflow, debt reached $57.9 billion, and management would not narrow full-year cash burn beyond “a usage”; the bull case is a $437 billion commercial backlog and improving production, while the bear case is execution, liquidity, defense losses, and Spirit integration risk.
• Q1 2017HoldHold: Teva delivered Q2 revenue of $3.9 billion, up 4% in local currencies, and raised 2023 revenue guidance to $15.0-$15.4 billion, with AUSTEDO revenue up 51% to $308 million. The growth platform is improving, but the investment case still depends on a second-half gross-margin recovery, successful UZEDY payer access in 2024, and reducing leverage from 4.14x net debt/EBITDA; Q2 also included a $462 million legal-provision charge and a $700 million goodwill impairment.
• Q4 2016No clear callHold. FMC delivered Q2 sales up 1%, volume up 6%, adjusted EBITDA of $207 million (+2%), and adjusted EPS of $0.69 (+10%), with cost savings offsetting 3% pricing pressure and FX. The second-half recovery is credible but not yet proven: FY revenue excluding India is guided down 2%, free cash flow falls to $200–$400 million, leverage remains elevated at 4.3x net debt/EBITDA, and the India divestment could trigger a Q3 impairment.
• Q2 2016HoldHold: Snap’s Q2 ad recovery remains fragile—total ad revenue grew 4% year over year, with direct-response up 5% and brand flat, while post-rollback growth was only 3–4%. Sponsored Snaps offers strong early engagement metrics—2x conversions, 5x click-to-convert ratios, and 2x website dwell time—but its broader rollout has depressed systemwide eCPMs, leaving Snap dependent on rebuilding advertiser demand; North America MAU was flat at 159 million while daily engagement remains pressured.