CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• 2026-06-09BuyBuy: Carrier reiterated roughly $6.0 billion of Q2 sales and $0.80 EPS, with data-center revenue already covered at $1.5 billion for 2026 and potentially above that. The bull case is accelerating data-center demand, improving residential and European heat-pump markets, and higher-margin aftermarket growth; the main tension is capacity execution, tariff realization, and limited near-term share upside outside its strongest niches.
• 2026-05-19BuyBuy: Carrier’s highest-quality growth engine is accelerating, with organic data-center revenue expected to rise 50% from $1.0 billion in 2025 to $1.5 billion in 2026, supported by Q1 orders up 500% and full-year coverage already in hand. Pricing has been raised to roughly 3 points, or about $600 million, including approximately $300 million to offset tariffs, while Europe and U.S. residential trends are improving; the key tension is execution and capacity, not demand, with potential constraints in 2027 and beyond.
• Q4 2024No clear callHOLD: Ensco posted strong deepwater utilization of 99% but weak consolidated earnings momentum, with Q1 revenue down 10% to $449 million and EPS from continuing operations falling to $1.11 from $1.59. The $0.35 quarterly dividend and $1.2 billion cash balance support the bull case, but Q2 revenue is expected to decline about 11% sequentially while jackup day rates continue falling; the deepwater recovery remains mostly a 2011-plus thesis.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: Oceaneering reaffirmed 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $140 million-$180 million, but Q1 still produced a $0.50 reported loss per share and only $25.2 million of adjusted EBITDA. The recovery case depends on ROV utilization rising above 50% in Q2-Q3, seasonal Gulf of Mexico activity and a Subsea Products book-to-bill above 1.0; the key tension is that products backlog fell to $240 million, with management acknowledging the order thesis is largely dependent on larger umbilical awards and FIDs that have not yet arrived.
• Q2 2024HoldHold: ADM delivered $0.60 adjusted EPS and $808 million of segment operating profit, but the quarter was aided by $101 million of GrainCorp and asset-monetization gains; underlying segment profit improved only $26 million year over year. Oilseeds remains strong and the balance sheet improved materially, yet ethanol lost $94 million, Ag Services is headed for a June-quarter trough, and North American oilseeds earnings are expected to decline over the next two quarters.
• Q3 2023BuyBuy: H.B. Fuller delivered a strong, volume-led Q1, with organic revenue up 10.5%, adjusted EBITDA up 30% to $101 million, and adjusted EPS nearly doubling to $0.66. FY2021 guidance calls for high-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth and $455-$475 million of EBITDA; the key tension is whether 5%-8% raw-material inflation and supply disruptions can be fully recovered through pricing, particularly in Q3.
• Q3 2022HoldHold: ADM’s Q2 was materially weak, with reported EPS of $0.12 versus $1.14 a year ago and adjusted EPS of $0.51 versus $1.20; segment operating profit excluding the PHA charge fell to $648 million from $1.4 billion. The long-term case rests on productivity savings above $100 million, HFCS price increases in the low teens, and capital discipline, but ethanol overcapacity, weak oilseed margins, poor merchandising, and another recent project write-down make the recovery too uncertain for a clean buy.