BOOT BARN HOLDINGS, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q3 2024BuyBuy: National Fuel is acquiring Shell’s Appalachian upstream and gathering assets for roughly $500 million, with management citing $125 million of first-year EBITDA, more than $100 million of post-close free cash flow, and over $40 million of FY2021 gathering revenue. The strategic fit and hedged PDP cash flows are compelling, but financing mix, gas-price sensitivity, and leverage execution remain the key tensions.
• Q1 2024HoldHold: Starbucks is showing credible turnaround indicators, but the earnings profile remains materially impaired—Q2 revenue was $8.8 billion, up 3% in constant currency, while global comps fell 1%, U.S. transactions declined 4%, operating margin contracted 450 bps to 8.2%, and EPS fell 38% to $0.41. The bull case is improving store execution, labor deployment and brand engagement; the tension is that the recovery requires more labor spending, has no quantified margin or EPS path, and management acknowledged the turnaround will take time.
• Q1 2020BuyBuy: Boot Barn delivered a broad-based Q1 beat, with sales up 14.7% to $186 million, consolidated same-store sales up 9.4%, adjusted EPS up 113% to $0.32, and operating margin expanding 260 basis points to 8.6%. FY2020 EPS guidance increased to $1.57-$1.65, supported by clean inventory, reduced promotions, exclusive-brand penetration, and strong store productivity; the key tension is that e-commerce sales were up only about 1% and management did not fully reflect expected back-half margin upside in guidance.
• Q4 2018BuyBuy: Mosaic exited Q3 with its highest EBITDA in more than a decade, roughly 90% of Q4 volume committed and priced, and expected sequential realized-price increases of $55-$65/tonne in phosphates and $110-$130/tonne in potash. The near-term setup is unusually strong as K3 reaches full production by end-Q1 2022 and Colonsay contributes about 1 million tonnes annually, but the thesis remains cyclical and depends on tight supply, healthy crop economics, and government support in India.
• Q1 2026HoldHOLD: ADM delivered $0.60 adjusted EPS and $808 million segment operating profit, but underlying segment profit improved only $26 million year over year after excluding $101 million of gains and the prior-year impairment. Oilseeds and cash generation are strong, yet North American Oilseeds and Ag Services are expected to weaken into mid-2013 while ethanol remains structurally oversupplied and loss-making.
• Q3 2017HoldHold: National Fuel delivered solid Q3 EPS of $0.56, up nearly 10%, while fiscal 2012 guidance calls for $2.85-$3.15 of EPS and 35% production growth at the midpoint. The Marcellus and pipeline buildout support a compelling growth profile, but the plan requires $970 million-$1.1 billion of 2012 capital spending, more than $300 million of cash-flow outspend, and $400 million-$500 million of debt issuance, leaving meaningful commodity-price, execution, and leverage risk.
• Q1 2017HoldHold: National Fuel delivered Q1 EPS of $0.70, while Marcellus production more than doubled sequentially to 5.9 Bcf and reached 90 MMcfe/d exiting the quarter. The growth platform is compelling—FY2011 EPS guidance is $2.75-$3.00 and fully subscribed pipeline projects should add $26 million initially, ramping to $36 million annually—but higher completion costs, Niagara capacity turnbacks and an unresolved JV keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy.