BLACKBERRY Ltd

Recommendation history

• Q3 2026HoldHold: BlackBerry beat with Q3 revenue of $141.8 million, 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, $17.9 million operating cash flow, and QNX revenue up 10% to a record $68.7 million. The FY26 outlook is improving, but Secure Communications ARR is only $216 million with 92% DBNRR and the larger QNX platform opportunity remains dependent on unproven design-win conversion and Vector integration.
• 2025-09-25HoldHold: BlackBerry produced Q2 revenue of $129.6 million, 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, $13.3 million GAAP net income and $3.4 million operating cash flow, while raising FY26 revenue guidance to $519-$541 million and adjusted EBITDA to $82-$101 million. The bull case is QNX's 15% growth and 32% margin; the tension is that automotive programs remain delayed, Secure Communications DBNRR is only 93%, and Q2 benefited from a non-recurring $4 million government grant.
• Q1 2026HoldHold after a strong Q1: revenue was $121.7 million, adjusted EBITDA $16.4 million, and GAAP net income $1.9 million, but management expects Q2 revenue of $115 million-$125 million and QNX royalty risk from auto production and tariffs. The bull case is raised FY2026 revenue guidance of $508 million-$538 million and adjusted EBITDA of $72 million-$87 million; the tension is that ARR is flat at $209 million, DBNRR is only 92%, and much of Secure Communications' Q1 upside came from deals pulled forward.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: BlackBerry exited FY25 with $410 million of cash and FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $69-$84 million, but total revenue guidance is only $504-$534 million and QNX growth remains exposed to automotive uncertainty. The QNX royalty backlog of approximately $865 million and successful cost reset support the turnaround, while falling Secure Communications ARR and government-budget risk argue against buying aggressively.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Q3 revenue was $162 million, adjusted EBITDA $23 million, and operating and free cash flow both turned positive at $3 million, with IoT revenue up 13% year over year. The improvement is real, but Secure Communications is positioned as a stable rather than high-growth business and the thesis still depends on closing the Cylance sale and converting QNX design wins into durable royalties.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 revenue reached $145 million, with IoT up 12% year over year to $55 million and Cyber up 10% to $87 million, while adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS reached breakeven. Cost cuts and QNX design wins support the bull case, but Cyber ARR was flat at $279 million, DBNRR was only 88%, Cylance product-only churn persists, and delayed automotive programs plus no near-term material IVY revenue keep this from being a clean buy.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: BlackBerry beat quarterly revenue expectations at $144 million ($53 million IoT, $85 million Cybersecurity) and cut non-GAAP operating expenses to $109 million, but still used $16 million of free cash and posted negative $7 million adjusted EBITDA. The upside is QNX's $815 million royalty backlog and improving Cybersecurity ARR to $285 million; the tension is delayed automotive software programs and a still-unproven path to positive cash flow in Q4.