AXON ENTERPRISE, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026BuyAxon merits a buy after a strong Q1: revenue rose 34% to $807 million, ARR grew 35% to $1.5 billion, net revenue retention was 125%, and AI bookings increased 140% while Dedrone bookings surged 500%. Management raised FY2026 revenue-growth guidance to 30–32% and maintained a 25.5% adjusted EBITDA-margin target, but the thesis still depends on converting large bookings into revenue while absorbing inventory investment and lower-margin hardware mix.
• Q4 2025BuyBuy: Axon delivered Q4 revenue of $797 million, up 39%, with software and services up 40%, ARR above $1.3 billion, 125% net revenue retention, and adjusted EBITDA up 46% to $206 million. Management guided 2026 revenue growth of 27%-30% at a 25.5% adjusted EBITDA margin and targets approximately $6 billion of 2028 revenue at a 28% margin, supported by accelerating bookings, cross-sell, and new AI, 911, enterprise, international, and counter-drone products. The key tension is that management declined to provide 2026 bookings guidance, while enterprise expansion, AI monetization, and acquisition integration remain execution-dependent.
• Q3 2025BuyBuy: Axon delivered Q3 revenue of $711 million, up 31% year over year, with software and services up 41% to $305 million, ARR up 41% to $1.3 billion, and 124% net revenue retention. The raised FY2025 outlook calls for approximately $2.74 billion of revenue, about 31% growth, and a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin; the main tension is that Q3 connected-device growth slowed to 24%, tariffs reduced margins, and management offered limited proof that the newly acquired 911 assets can scale economically.
• Q2 2024BuyBuy: AXON delivered a broad-based Q2 beat, with revenue up 35% year over year to more than $500 million, adjusted EBITDA of $123 million at a 24.5% margin, ARR up 44% to $850 million, and 122% net revenue retention. Management raised 2024 revenue guidance to $2.00-$2.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $460-$475 million, while Draft One, Fusus, TASER 10, and international expansion extend the growth runway; the main tension is that AI monetization remains largely prospective and management’s confidence in the second-half bookings pipeline is not yet evidenced by revenue.
• Q1 2024BuyBuy: Axon delivered 34% Q1 revenue growth, 51.5% Cloud and Services growth, 122% net revenue retention, and 23.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, while raising FY2024 revenue guidance to $1.94-$1.99 billion, or approximately 26% growth at midpoint. Taser 10 demand and Draft One create meaningful upside, but the setup is not risk-free: Q1 bookings declined sequentially, gross-margin pressure is expected, and Dedrone adds integration costs while contributing immaterial near-term revenue.
• Q4 2023BuyBuy: Axon delivered 31% FY2023 revenue growth, 47% ARR growth to $697 million, 21% adjusted EBITDA margin, and guided 2024 revenue to $1.88–$1.94 billion (+20–24%) with $410–$430 million of adjusted EBITDA. The core thesis remains strong—TASER 10 orders are running at more than 4x TASER 7’s pace, future contracted revenue reached $7.1 billion (+54%), and software retention is 122%—but investors should discount the large TAM and acquisition narrative because enterprise, international cloud, and drones remain early-stage and partly unquantified.
• Q1 2023BuyBuy: Axon delivered 34% Q1 revenue growth, including 51% cloud growth and 139% Fleet growth, and raised FY2023 revenue guidance to $1.44-$1.46 billion, or 22% growth at the midpoint, while maintaining $288-$292 million of adjusted EBITDA guidance. TASER 10, Body 4, Fleet, and software support a credible hardware-to-cloud flywheel, but the near-term tradeoff is muted gross-margin expansion and a second-half growth deceleration as customers transition to new products and face tougher comparisons.