ebitda
52–55 $million
Q4 2026
official guidance
MISSION PRODUCE, INC.
Last · —$12.05+0.24 (+2.03%)live · yahoo · 1s ago
Market cap$1.06B—
P/E · TTM402fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
| Revenue | $1.3B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-4.0M |
| Net income | $1.6M |
| Free cash flow | $-57.9M |
| Operating margin | -0.3% |
| Net margin | 0.1% |
| Return on equity | 0.2% |
| Period | TTM 2026-07-31 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong seasonal and synergy potential is offset by unproven integration savings, low margins, cash burn, and acquisition-related leverage.
Hold: Mission Produce delivered a solid integration debut, with revenue up 26% to $450 million, avocado volume up 38%, and adjusted EBITDA of $32.4 million above the $28–$32 million guide.
The bull case is rising Calavo synergies to more than $30 million and $52–$55 million of Q4 EBITDA guidance, but the stock still carries meaningful execution and leverage risk: gross margin fell 270 basis points to 9.9%, operating cash flow was negative $25.9 million year to date, and debt was approximately $400.3 million.
Themes
- Calavo Integration
- Synergies
- Avocado Supply
- Peru Harvest
- Prepared Foods
- Leverage
Near term
Q4 Peru harvest and blueberry seasonality are expected to drive adjusted EBITDA to $52–$55 million, with management citing improved fruit mix and higher-yielding farms.
Initial Calavo synergies are expected to begin contributing in Q4, but most of the more-than-$30 million annualized target is expected to build during fiscal 2027.
Investor Day should provide needed detail on synergy composition, Prepared Foods capacity expansion, leverage reduction, and the combined-company financial framework.
Longer term
The combination could improve network utilization, sourcing flexibility, customer reach, and U.S. retail market share without requiring additional M&A.
Avocado category demand appears durable: U.S. retail volume rose approximately 9% year over year despite a 15% sequential increase in average retail prices, while consumption exceeded 10 pounds per capita and rose 12%.
Prepared Foods offers a potentially valuable higher-value-added growth platform, but the initial post-acquisition period produced $15.5 million of sales and only $0.2 million of adjusted EBITDA.
The competitive moat remains insufficiently demonstrated. Management asserted that competitors cannot match the combined access to fruit and programs, but did not quantify the advantage or provide evidence that market-share gains will translate into superior margins.
Red flags
The increase in annualized synergies from $25 million to more than $30 million is largely based on early integration work, while management deferred detailed support to Investor Day and acknowledged additional integration costs ahead.
International Farming adjusted EBITDA fell to $7.6 million from $12.1 million as lower average sales prices pressured profitability, highlighting vulnerability to persistent industry oversupply.
Net cash used in operating activities was $25.9 million through nine months versus $21.4 million of cash generation last year, while interest expense more than doubled to $5.1 million after acquisition financing.
Prepared Foods has not yet demonstrated attractive economics, and management is still evaluating throughput improvements and capacity expansion.
Analyst questioning exposed limited precision around Calavo's standalone volume contribution and the expected Q4 volume base, making the combined growth trajectory difficult to model.
Forward outlook
ebitda
84–88 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2025-12-18
- Customer Concentration
- Commodity Price Exposure
- Mexico Supply Risk
- Tariff Exposure
- Thin Operating Margin
- Agricultural Weather Risk
Red flags
- Customer concentration is severe: the top 10 customers generated 67% of fiscal 2025 net sales, one customer generated 19%, and a single customer represented 20% of trade receivables.
- Gross margin is only 11.6% and operating margin 4.7%, leaving limited buffer against procurement, logistics, packaging, labor, or fruit-price shocks.
- The business primarily relies on one product, avocados, and generally lacks long-term supplier and customer contracts, making volumes and pricing vulnerable to switching and market swings.
- Long-term debt was $96.0 million at October 31, 2025, with $45.5 million of principal due in 2027 and variable-rate exposure.
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Mission Produce Unveils Five-Year Financial Targets and Strategies at 2026 Investor Day
- GlobeNewswire
Mission Produce® Announces Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Financial Results