revenue
2125–2225 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
AEROVIRONMENT, INC.
Last · NasdaqGS$123.22+2.62 (+2.17%)live · yahoo · 1h ago
Market cap$6.26B50.8M sh
P/E · TTM-32.1fwd 27.8 · eps -3.84 · loss
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$116.42$408.25
Volume1.5Msession
| Revenue | $2.0B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-10.9M |
| Net income | $-7.7M |
| Free cash flow | $-30.5M |
| Operating margin | -0.5% |
| Net margin | -0.4% |
| Return on equity | -0.2% |
| Period | TTM 2026-08-01 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong franchise momentum is offset by valuation-sensitive execution, cash investment, and limited guidance upside.
Hold after a strong quarter, not a clean buy:
revenue was $480.5 million, funded backlog reached a record $1.5 billion (+37% year over year), and adjusted EPS rose 84% to $0.59. The long-term counter-UAS and precision-strike opportunity is compelling, but management only reaffirmed FY2027 revenue of $2.125-$2.225 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $305-$325 million despite the beat, while free cash flow is expected to remain negative and the second-half execution burden is high.
Themes
- Counter Uas
- Locust Directed Energy
- Precision Strike
- P550 Lrr
- Funded Backlog
- Capacity Expansion
Near term
Revenue and EBITDA are heavily back-half weighted: management expects a 45%/55% first-half/second-half revenue split and roughly one-third/two-thirds EBITDA split, implying a softer Q2 despite higher revenue.
Congressional budget timing remains the principal near-term risk; management said the current outlook assumes a short-term continuing resolution followed by budget approval around December.
Delivery timing for the $117 million P550 award, Switchblade contracts, LOCUST production awards, and Freedom Eagle-1 testing will determine whether the second-half ramp is credible.
The next quarter should clarify whether the Q1 Uncrewed Aircraft Systems growth rate can persist and whether Cyber Mission Solutions margins recover from unusually low utilization.
Longer term
LOCUST could become a major franchise: management targets a potential $500 million-plus annual business in roughly a year and argues international demand could rival or exceed domestic demand, but this remains largely unquantified opportunity rather than contracted revenue.
P550, Switchblade, Titan, LOCUST, and Freedom Eagle-1 give AeroVironment multiple potential program-of-record growth vectors, with capacity expansion intended to convert production readiness into additional awards.
The company claims more than 98% of its supply base is domestic, which should reduce tariff and China-related sourcing risk and may be a competitive advantage in U.S. defense procurement.
International localization through operations, joint ventures, and teaming arrangements in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East could expand adoption, but also adds execution and potential capital-allocation complexity.
Red flags
Management did not raise full-year guidance after a strong Q1; analysts explicitly questioned the lack of an increase, and management pointed to budget uncertainty and a second-half ramp rather than providing incremental upside.
Free cash flow was negative $36 million in Q1 and is expected to remain negative for FY2027 as CapEx reaches 12%-14% of revenue; inventory and long-lead component purchases increase balance-sheet execution risk.
SCDE revenue fell 21% year over year after SCAR termination, adjusted service gross margin declined to 8%, and SCDE adjusted EBITDA was negative $9 million. Management expects improvement, but offered limited quantified milestones.
LOCUST profitability, production capacity, international orders, and the claimed multibillion-dollar market are highly dependent on immature supply chains and future awards; analyst questioning did not produce a firm production-rate or revenue schedule.
The outlook depends on a substantial second-half contribution while Q2 EBITDA is expected to decline because of mix and higher R&D, leaving limited room for program delays or budget slippage.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
10 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
ebitda
305–325 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
3.02–3.34 $per share
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-06-29
- Government Concentration
- Space Impairment
- Bluehalo Integration
- Material Weakness
- Acquisition Risk
- Equity Dilution
- Defense Budget Risk
Red flags
- U.S. government agencies represented 85% of fiscal 2026 revenue and 76% of accounts receivable; the U.S. Army alone represented 25% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
- The Space reporting unit recorded approximately $241 million of goodwill impairment after a January 2026 stop-work order and March 2026 termination of the BADGER agreement; UGV recorded an $18.4 million goodwill impairment in fiscal 2025.
- Management concluded disclosure controls and procedures were ineffective as of April 30, 2026 because of material weaknesses, including BlueHalo IT general controls and a financial close/reporting weakness.
- BlueHalo and ESAero were excluded from the internal-control assessment despite representing approximately 46% of total assets and 48% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
- The July 2025 common-stock offering issued 4,057,460 shares and generated approximately $1.006 billion of gross proceeds, creating material shareholder dilution, even as proceeds were used to repay acquisition-related debt.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$0.39
Est. revenue
512.0M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- Satelight
The Army just used a 20-kilowatt laser to take out three drones
- Satelight
AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results