revenue
4200–4400 $million
Q4 2026
official guidance
| Revenue | $13.9B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $4.9B |
| Net income | $4.1B |
| Free cash flow | $4.9B |
| Operating margin | 35.5% |
| Net margin | 29.8% |
| Return on equity | 12.3% |
| Period | TTM 2026-08-01 |
OpenFilings analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Bullish quarter and guide support continued upside, with Q3 revenue of $4.02B (+40% YoY), 50.0% adjusted operating margin, and $3.45 adjusted EPS; Q4 guidance calls for $4.3B revenue and $3.86 EPS.
The strongest evidence is accelerating data-center demand—communications revenue rose 84%, with data center now 80% of the segment and optical and power each growing more than 100%—but the investment case increasingly depends on AI infrastructure remaining durable and on ADI converting broad market claims into sustained share gains.
Q4 guidance implies another sequential growth quarter, with communications expected to lead at approximately 10% growth, industrial up high single digits, consumer up high single digits, and automotive up low single digits.
Margin expansion is a near-term catalyst: management expects approximately 74% gross margin and 52% operating margin at the Q4 midpoint, driven by mix, absorption, and announced pricing actions.
Inventory rose $83M sequentially to a record level as ADI builds strategic die banks, although days of inventory declined to 156 and channel weeks fell below the 6–7 week target.
The 80% data-center mix within communications raises sensitivity to AI infrastructure spending and makes any evidence of hyperscaler capex moderation particularly important.
ADI is positioning itself across the grid-to-chip power chain, including grid monitoring, battery management, rack power, processor power delivery, sensing, telemetry, and optical connectivity; management says the 2030 data-center and energy SAM is more than double its prior estimate.
Empower adds in-package power delivery and is claimed to reduce compute power consumption and temperature by approximately 10%–15%; the key long-term test is whether the acquisition produces meaningful design wins and synergies beyond the stated strategic rationale.
Optical circuit switching is expected to approximately double this fiscal year and management is targeting a similar growth rate in 2027, while the energy business is expected to double by the end of the decade from its current $500M-plus scale.
The physical-AI thesis—robotics, digital health, and autonomous mobility—could broaden ADI’s exposure beyond data centers, but it remains an aspirational extension rather than a demonstrated earnings driver.
Analyst Mark Lipacis directly challenged the claim that AI could structurally lift analog growth above the historical 5%–7% range by comparing it with the late-1990s internet cycle. Management responded with portfolio breadth and optionality, but did not provide evidence that industry growth will avoid a similar normalization.
Management declined to provide a numeric 2027 communications or data-center growth outlook when Stacy Rasgon asked whether communications could approach 100% growth; the response was only that data-center growth should remain strong and double digit through 2030.
Customer inventories remain lean and management reported no meaningful restocking activity, so current growth appears dependent on end demand rather than a broad inventory rebuild.
Record company and distributor inventory creates execution and potential digestion risk if AI or industrial demand slows, despite management’s argument that the inventory is strategically positioned.
Supply is being supported through internal tools, external wafers, and manufacturing partners, but management did not quantify capacity additions, external-sourcing dependence, or the point at which demand could exceed supply.
Inflationary cost increases, geopolitical risk, rate hikes, and a potential reduction in AI capital expenditures remain explicitly acknowledged downside scenarios. Net leverage increased to 0.9 after the $1.5B all-cash Empower acquisition.
The bullish thesis relies heavily on management’s expanding SAM estimates, future architecture transitions such as 800V distribution and CPO, and sustained design-win momentum; Q&A provided limited customer-level or revenue visibility to validate those assumptions.
revenue
4200–4400 $million
Q4 2026
official guidance
adjusted eps
3.71–4.01 $per share
Q4 2026
official guidance
operating margin
51–53 pct
Q4 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
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