JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT PLC

Recommendation history

• 2026-02-26HoldHold: Jupiter delivered a credible operational turnaround, with £1.3bn of 2025 net inflows, £54bn year-end AUM up 19%, 84% of AUM outperforming over one year, and positive flows continuing into 2026. However, the investment case still depends on converting momentum into recurring earnings while fee margins fall to about 63bp, performance fees normalize toward management’s extrapolated £20m, and the £15bn CCLA acquisition delivers £16m of synergies despite expected client outflows.
• H1 2025HoldHold: Jupiter is improving operationally, with H1 net outflows limited to £0.2bn, AUM recovering to over £47bn, 64% of mutual-fund AUM outperforming over three years, and £15m of standalone savings targeted through 2027. However, sustained net inflows remain unproven, institutional flows are lumpy and unquantified, while the £100m CCLA acquisition adds £17m of one-off costs and up to two years of integration risk.
• 2025-02-27HoldJupiter remains a hold: 2024 net revenue fell to £333m from £356m, average fee margin dropped to 65bps, and underlying outflows were £3.3bn despite strong performance fees of over £31m. The recovery case is credible—61% of mutual-fund AUM beat peer median, capital returns include a 5.4p dividend and £13m buyback, and management expects institutional growth—but 2025 starts with a 78% cost ratio, expected compensation at 49%, mixed retail flows and no flow guidance.
• H1 2024HoldHold: Jupiter delivered resilient H1 underlying PBT of £47.9m (+3%) and a 3.2p interim dividend, but £3.4bn of net outflows, £51.3bn AUM, weaker fee margins and continuing Value-team redemptions leave the recovery unproven. The key positive is only £0.2bn of underlying outflows, including positive UK retail flows, but nearly all of the £3.4bn Value-team segregated mandates (£3.4bn of £6.3bn Value AUM) could still exit by year-end.
• 2024-02-22HoldHold. Jupiter delivered resilient 2023 underlying profit of £105m on £369m revenue, but the core growth engine remains unproven: net outflows were £2.2bn, average AUM fell 3%, and 2024 guidance is only broadly flat underlying flows. Institutional and international momentum, improved fund performance and cost control support the bull case, but fee-margin compression to a little over 66bp, value-team uncertainty and a £76m goodwill impairment keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy.
• Q3 2023HoldJupiter remains a hold: institutional momentum is encouraging, with £1.7bn of year-to-date fundings and £9.8bn of institutional AUM, but this was outweighed by £1bn of year-to-date net outflows from retail and wholesale. The 2024 outlook also worsens economically, with tiered pricing expected to reduce net revenue margin by a further 1.5–2 bps and compensation expected at a mid-to-high-40s percentage of revenue; strategic restructuring has yet to translate into group-wide flow growth.
• H1 2023HoldHold: Jupiter showed credible operational improvement, with underlying profit up to £46m from £30m, EPS up nearly 60% to 6.7p, AUM up 2% to £51.4bn and marginally positive H1 net flows. However, the recovery remains incomplete: retail outflows were £1.7bn, net revenue fell to £181m, fee margin is expected to decline to 69bps for 2023, and investment performance is still uneven despite stronger institutional momentum and £1.5bn of late-stage pipeline.