revenue
4277 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
EWELL CO.,LTD. · 株式会社eWeLL
Last · Tokyo¥2274.00-24.00 (-1.04%)close · yahoo · 6h ago
Market cap¥30.8B13.6M sh
P/E · TTM28.8fwd 34.1 · eps 78.99
Beta1.09vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
¥1695.00¥3015.00
Volume31.8Ksession
| Revenue | ¥3.4B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | ¥1.5B |
| Net income | ¥1.1B |
| Free cash flow | ¥1.1B |
| Operating margin | 45.3% |
| Net margin | 32.1% |
| Return on equity | 32.2% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong execution and recurring-revenue expansion outweigh the still-manageable competitive and monetization risks.
Buy: eWeLL delivered a strong 1H, with revenue of JPY1,991 million (+24.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY946 million (+20.1%), and a 47.5% operating margin, while progress exceeded plan.
The key bull case is a sticky, high-margin vertical SaaS platform with 108% NRR, 18.6% market share, and rapidly expanding AI services; the main tension is that AI competitive risk, pricing actions, and the monetization of newer products remain unproven.
Themes
- Vertical Saas
- Home Visit Nursing
- Ai Services
- Net Retention Rate
- BpaaS
- Medical Fee Revision
Near term
AI Home-Visit Scheduling & Routes had 273 contracts and 246 paying stations in July; management targets approximately 400 revenue-generating contracts by FY-end, creating a near-term upsell test.
The company expects further improvement in average revenue per customer from AI and BPaaS adoption; Q2 monthly ARPU was JPY90,900, up 5.2% YoY.
Management will decide by year-end whether to raise prices after never increasing prices since 2014; a price increase could offset personnel, outsourcing, and server-cost inflation.
Revenue churn was low at 0.20%, but slightly above the forecast assumption and requires monitoring alongside the 64 quarterly cancellations.
Longer term
The 100-million-plus-record data set, workflow-specific product design, regulatory know-how, and integrated records-to-billing architecture provide a credible vertical-data moat, but the company acknowledged AI-enabled competitors can catch up.
NRR of 108% is encouraging, with a target of at least 110%; growth-phase customers had only 2.5% sales growth, highlighting execution risk in helping smaller operators expand.
AI penetration is already meaningful at more than 1,600 stations and 23,670 healthcare workers, but sustained retention and measurable customer ROI will determine whether AI becomes a durable growth engine.
Management targets revenue above JPY6.0 billion in 2028 and 50% market share by 2040, implying substantial long-term expansion but also requiring continued investment in AI, sales, customer success, and BPaaS.
Red flags
Management did not quantify customer switches or inquiry growth following the FY2026 Medical Fee Revision, despite citing the revision as a major source of opportunity.
AI Home-Visit Nursing Scoring has no contract forecast and is excluded from the current medium-term plan; its planned JPY30,000–50,000 monthly price and eventual adoption remain speculative.
The claimed AI advantage is supported by proprietary data and domain expertise, but management gave no quantified evidence that these advantages prevent displacement by well-funded AI competitors.
Gross margins face pressure from rising personnel, outsourcing, and server costs, while pricing changes remain undecided.
The reported 5.7-point difference in visit growth between AI and non-AI stations is observational rather than proof of causation; stronger customer-level evidence is needed.
Forward outlook
ebitda
—
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
6000 $million
FY 2028
management target
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags