PUMA SE

Recommendation history

• Q2 2023HoldPUMA delivered strong Q2 demand but not strong earnings quality: currency-adjusted sales rose 11.1% to €2.1bn, while gross margin fell 170bp to 44.8%, EBIT declined 21% to €115m and net income fell 35% to €55m. Management reaffirmed high-single-digit 2023 sales growth and €590–670m EBIT, but a mid-to-high-teens US decline, ongoing FX pressure and a Q3 weaker than Q4 make the risk/reward mixed.
• Q2 2024HoldHold. PUMA delivered Q2 sales growth of 2.1% currency-adjusted to EUR2.12bn, gross margin up 200bp to 46.8%, and EBIT up 1.6% to EUR117m, while reiterating mid-single-digit FY2024 sales growth and narrowing EBIT guidance to EUR620–670m. The Speedcat and performance franchises are gaining traction, but flat Q2 footwear, muted China demand, persistent promotions, higher freight and duties, and the reduced EBIT ceiling leave execution risk too high for a clean buy.
• Q1 2024HoldHold. PUMA delivered Q1 currency-adjusted sales growth of 0.5%, gross margin expansion of 100 bps to 47.5%, and healthy inventory reduction of 16.8%, but EBIT fell 9.4% to €159 million and wholesale declined 3%. The bull case is improving DTC demand, a stronger H2/Q4 order book, and potential FX and promotional tailwinds; the tension is that Q2 is framed at only 2–3% growth despite stronger March/April trends, while China remains muted and major sporting events offer limited near-term commercial upside.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: PUMA delivered Q1 sales of €2.1 billion, flat in constant currency, but adjusted EBIT fell 52% to €76 million as gross margin declined to 47% and OpEx rose 7.1%. The recovery case rests on Speedcat/running momentum and up to €100 million of nextlevel EBIT benefits, but the €520–€600 million 2025 adjusted EBIT outlook excludes the latest US tariff impact, while North America and China remain weak and inventory rose 21% currency-adjusted.
• Q2 2025SellSell: PUMA’s Q2 sales fell 2% currency-adjusted to €1.94bn, with wholesale down 6%, North America down 9%, and adjusted EBIT at a €13.2m loss. Management now expects low-double-digit currency-adjusted sales decline and a full-year reported EBIT loss, while inventory rose 18% currency-adjusted to €2.15bn; the new CEO’s October strategy review offers potential upside but little near-term visibility.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: PUMA is executing a necessary but severe reset, with Q3 currency-adjusted sales down 10.4% to €1.96bn, adjusted EBIT of only €39.5m, net loss of €62m, inventory up 24% currency-adjusted to €2.1bn and free cash flow at -€686m year to date. The long-term brand plan—fewer products, better distribution, premiumisation and growth in 2027—could work, but management provided no quantified 2026 recovery or margin targets while leverage remains elevated and cleanup continues.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: PUMA delivered a solid Q3, with currency-adjusted sales up 5%, gross margin up 80 bps to 47.9%, and EBIT of €237 million, while reaffirming FY24 EBIT guidance of €620–€670 million. The bull case is accelerating wholesale, strong DTC demand (+17% YTD), and Speedcat scaling toward mid-single-digit million units in 2025; however, the thesis still depends on converting early sell-through into broad-based growth, while Europe was only up 2%, China remains mixed, and Q4 freight, duties, promotions, and FX create execution risk.