BADGER INFRASTRUCTURE SOLUTIONS LTD.

Recommendation history

• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 revenue rose 11% to $208.2 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 18% with margin up 140 basis points to 25.3%, and adjusted EPS rose 33% to $0.60. The operating execution and 1.4x leverage are strong, but management says current growth is likely to remain around low double digits, has not underwritten a return to its 12%-14% long-range target, and faces third-party refurbishment capacity constraints.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Q1 revenue was $172.6 million, up 7%, while adjusted EBITDA rose 16% and margin expanded to 19.6%; adjusted EPS increased 36% to $0.19. Execution is strong, but revenue per truck was flat and tariff exposure, weather normalization, and the claimed demand recovery remain insufficiently quantified for a clean buy.
• Q4 2024HoldHOLD — Q4 revenue grew 8%, adjusted EBITDA grew 28% to a 23.5% margin, and FY2024 revenue reached $745 million (+9%) with a 23.6% adjusted EBITDA margin. Pricing, utilization potential, and 1.1x leverage support the thesis, but Canadian revenue fell 15%, 2025 fleet growth is planned at only 4%-7%, and tariff exposure remains unresolved, so this is not a clean buy.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: Q3 revenue grew 7% and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 27.8% from 26.9%, with adjusted EPS up 6% to $0.73, but Canada revenue fell 12% and utilization weakened. The upside depends on an unquantified second-half 2025 recovery in delayed projects and U.S. markets; the current evidence supports patience rather than a clean buy.
• Q2 2024HoldHold: Q2 revenue rose 9% to $186.8 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 14% with margin up 110 basis points to 23.9%, and adjusted EPS rose 18% to $0.45. The U.S. is carrying growth, but Canadian revenue fell 19%, projects remain delayed without compensation, and 2024 fleet growth is now expected at the low end of 7%-10%.
• Q1 2024HoldHold: Q1 revenue rose 13% to $161.6 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 22% with an 18.1% margin, and adjusted EPS rose 27% to $0.14, but Canadian revenue fell 18% and management expects no Canadian growth in 2024. The U.S. is carrying the business and margins are improving, yet large Canadian project delays have been pushed twice, making the recovery timing too uncertain for a clean buy.
• Q4 2023HoldHold: 2023 revenue reached CAD 683.8 million, up 20%, while adjusted EBITDA rose 50% and margin expanded to 22%. The operating execution is strong, but 2024 revenue is unguided, capital spending is CAD 90-130 million, and slower battery-EV plant activity plus execution risk in refurbishments keep this from being a clean buy.