ANAERGIA INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026BuyBuy: Anaergia delivered a credible operating inflection, with Q1 revenue up 122% to $55.2 million, adjusted EBITDA positive at $1.1 million for the third straight quarter, and backlog up 32% to $265 million. The bull case is accelerating capital sales and a capital-light model; the tension is that Rhode Island still reduced adjusted EBITDA by about $2 million, cash was only roughly $22 million, and management provided no formal 2026 guidance.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: Anaergia delivered a credible operational turnaround, with 2025 revenue up 61% to $180.2 million, adjusted EBITDA turning positive at $0.6 million, and backlog rising 149% to $257 million. The bull case is durable project momentum and improving BOO economics, but profitability remains thin, Q4 gross margin fell to 22.5%, management gave no formal 2026 guidance, and much of the growth case still depends on converting an uncontracted pipeline exceeding $1 billion.
• Q3 2025HoldHold after a strong but not yet fully proven turnaround: Q3 revenue rose 77% year over year to $51.4 million, gross margin reached 28.8%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.6 million versus a $6.4 million loss. The $287 million backlog and 2026 contract pipeline support further growth, but this is only the first positive EBITDA quarter in more than two years, with no quantified EBITDA, cash-flow, or balance-sheet outlook.
• Q2 2025HoldAnaergia’s turnaround is gaining operating traction, but the business is not yet investable as a clear buy: Q2 revenue rose 36.8% year over year to $32.3 million, gross margin expanded to 32.5% from 17.6%, and adjusted EBITDA improved to a $2.2 million loss. The $243.9 million backlog, up 137% since year-end, supports future growth, but the company still posted a $9.5 million net loss, provided no formal outlook, and offered no analyst Q&A to test execution, cash flow, or balance-sheet risks.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: Anaergia showed real operational improvement, with Q4 gross margin expanding to 26.4% from 10.5% and full-year margin reaching 23.0%, while adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $26.9 million from $34.9 million. However, revenue fell 24.2% to $111.6 million, the company remains loss-making, and the $103.3 million backlog plus $250 million-plus pipeline still require execution and financing partners to convert into profitable growth.
• Q3 2022SellSell: Anaergia cut FY2022 revenue guidance to $160–170 million and expects approximately $10 million of negative Adjusted EBITDA, while withdrawing FY2023 guidance entirely. The long-term RNG opportunity remains attractive, but repeated project, permitting and regulatory delays, margin pressure and limited visibility make the near-term equity risk/reward unfavorable.
• Q2 2023SellSell: Anaergia disclosed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern after a Q2 net loss of $119.8 million, $33.9 million of year-to-date operating cash outflow, a $55 million expected credit loss and a $37.9 million Rialto deconsolidation loss. Management withdrew its 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook, expects both to be below prior guidance, and provided no quantified path for the strategic review, Italian BOO funding or asset sales.