revenue
80–84 $million
Q2 2027
official guidance
QUANTUM CORPORATION
Last · NasdaqGM$23.86-2.66 (-10.03%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$940.32M39.4M sh
P/E · TTM-2.3fwd 28.4 · eps -12.97 · loss
Beta3.09vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$4.19$35.65
Volume1.1Msession
| Revenue | $296.1M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $5.0M |
| Net income | $-155.3M |
| Free cash flow | $552,000 |
| Operating margin | 1.7% |
| Net margin | -52.4% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Cautiously constructive, but not a clean buy:
Quantum delivered $80.8M of revenue (+25.7% YoY), $8.0M of adjusted EBITDA, 39.3% gross margin, positive operating cash flow, and eliminated $144.8M of debt. The balance-sheet reset materially improves survival and earnings quality, but Q2 guidance implies only $82M revenue and $6M EBITDA despite record backlog, because tape-drive supply remains constrained and management is guiding conservatively on margins; the stock still depends on converting demand into shipments.
Themes
- Debt Elimination
- Tape Drive Supply
- Ibm Supplier Risk
- Activescale Adoption
- Hyperscaler Deals
- Gross Margin
Near term
Tape-drive availability is the immediate revenue constraint; management said supply from IBM has remained flat through August and has not yet reached the expected production inflection.
Q2 revenue guidance of $80M-$84M is only modestly above Q1 despite substantially higher backlog, making shipment fulfillment the key near-term stock catalyst.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5M-$7M versus Q1's $8M reflects higher commissions, faster R&D hiring, and uncertainty around gross margin on large deals.
Management did not quantify the record backlog, limiting visibility into how much future demand is actually contracted and shippable.
Longer term
Debt elimination and $54.6M of cash remove the immediate financing overhang and sharply reduce interest expense, but the $94.6M private placement likely increases the share base and creates dilution that investors must underwrite.
ActiveScale appears to be gaining enterprise traction, with more seven-digit deals and customer expansions, but management refused to disclose its share of bookings or pipeline, leaving the scale and durability of the software contribution unproven.
Tape demand has a credible structural rationale—lower storage cost and power use plus cyber resilience—and LTO capacity shipments rose 15% sequentially, but Quantum's growth remains dependent on hardware availability and supplier execution.
Large enterprise deals, often above $3M, could improve growth and mix if repeatable; conversely, continued concentration in tape hardware could limit the benefit of the ActiveScale thesis.
Red flags
IBM was identified as the primary tape-drive supplier, and management explicitly said it is still not receiving adequate supply; the timing of improvement remains uncertain.
Management declined to provide backlog, ActiveScale bookings, or pipeline mix figures despite repeated analyst questions, weakening the evidence behind the claimed demand and adoption momentum.
Gross margin reached 39.3%, but the CFO warned of component-price volatility and large-deal mix pressure, while Q2 EBITDA guidance steps down despite sequentially higher revenue.
The quarter's $155.3M GAAP net loss was driven by $157.7M of noncash debt, warrant, and convertible-note charges; although non-GAAP profitability improved, the capital structure reset and private placement warrant scrutiny.
The call provided no quantified framework for how much hyperscaler demand can be fulfilled once supply improves, so the upside case remains more conditional than the headline backlog suggests.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
31 pct
Q2 2027
official guidance
ebitda
5–7 $million
Q2 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.02–0.22 $per share
Q2 2027
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-06-25
- Negative Cash Flow
- Liquidity Risk
- Debt Refinancing
- Material Weakness
- Single Contract Manufacturer
- Inventory Commitments
- Secondary Storage Growth
- Service Revenue Decline
Red flags
- Net loss was $101.0 million on $279.6 million of revenue, while operating cash flow was negative $37.9 million; losses persisted despite a $23.96 million reduction in operating expenses.
- Debt remained substantial at March 31, 2026: $55.9 million of term loan and $90.0 million of convertible note, with $54.8 million classified as current. Interest expense was $21.6 million.
- The company recorded a $59.6 million loss on debt extinguishment and an $11.3 million non-cash loss from the change in fair value of warrant liabilities.
- Management concluded disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting were ineffective due to material weaknesses in revenue recognition, manufacturing inventory reconciliation, income-tax review, and entity-level controls.
- Quantum had $76.8 million of non-cancelable commitments to purchase inventory from contract manufacturers and suppliers, exposing cash and margins to forecast reductions, mix shifts, and excess inventory.
- The company relies on a single contract manufacturer and logistics provider, while many suppliers are sole sources and generally lack executed long-term purchase agreements.
- The company is facing shareholder class-action and derivative litigation tied to disclosures and a prior financial-reporting restatement; potential damages remain unspecified.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.13
Est. revenue
82.0M
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
2027 earnings call transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
Q1 2027 earnings call transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION
- Motley Fool
Quantum (QMCO) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
2026 earnings call transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
Q4 2026 earnings call transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
2026 earnings call transcript
QUANTUM CORPORATION