revenue
1.3–1.5 $billion
Q3 2026
official guidance
CANADIAN SOLAR INC.
Last · NasdaqGS$10.33-0.88 (-7.85%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$701.37M67.9M sh
P/E · TTM-3.0fwd -115 · eps -3.55 · loss
Beta1.53vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$10.30$34.59
Volume2.0Msession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Backlog and U.S. positioning are attractive, but profitability and cash conversion remain unproven.
Hold: Canadian Solar delivered $1.2 billion of Q2 revenue and 13.9% gross margin, but still lost $77 million while operating cash flow was negative $181 million and debt rose to $7.1 billion.
The bull case is a $4.5 billion U.S. module backlog, $3.5 billion e-STORAGE backlog and stronger Q3 guidance of $1.3-$1.5 billion revenue; the key tension is whether domestic manufacturing and policy benefits can overcome freight, ramp-up and project-monetization risks.
Themes
- Us Manufacturing
- Hjt Cells
- Section 232
- Energy Storage
- Recurrent Energy
- Capital Intensity
Near term
Q3 execution against $1.3-$1.5 billion revenue guidance, 3.5-3.8 GW of module shipments and 3.4-3.8 GWh of storage shipments.
Whether deferred Recurrent Energy project sales actually close in the second half after Q2 revenue fell to $117 million and the segment posted a $19 million operating loss.
Jeffersonville Phase 1 reaching full-scale production on October 1 without further material ramp-up costs.
Freight and logistics costs, which drove part of the Q2 loss and remain exposed to geopolitical disruption.
Implementation of the Section 232 polysilicon policy and whether customer contract repricing becomes economically meaningful.
Longer term
The 13 GW, more than $4.5 billion module backlog through 2029 provides visibility, but management did not quantify backlog margins or the timing and economics of price resets.
U.S. HJT manufacturing could gain domestic-content advantages, but the planned $1.3 billion of 2026 CapEx and additional debt require materially better margins and cash flow in 2027 and beyond.
e-STORAGE has attractive scale with a $3.5 billion backlog and 34 GWh under long-term service agreements; SolBank 4.0's planned 25% density improvement could support competitiveness if reliability and cost targets are met.
Recurrent Energy's 21.7 GW solar and 84.1 GWh storage pipelines offer capital-recycling potential, but value depends on high-margin asset selection and successful monetization rather than pipeline size alone.
HJT, tandem, sodium-ion and space-PV initiatives expand the technology option set, but most benefits are several years out and require continued R&D investment.
Competitive differentiation is not yet demonstrated in returns: HJT may reduce labor and some IP exposure versus TOPCon, but the call did not establish a durable cost advantage or quantify customer willingness to pay.
Red flags
The company reported a $77 million net loss, $71 million operating loss and negative $181 million operating cash flow despite revenue at the high end of guidance.
Debt increased to $7.1 billion while management expects manufacturing to take on incremental debt for U.S. expansion; deleveraging depends on future project monetizations.
Management could not quantify the Section 232 price uplift, said it was premature to estimate the magnitude, and acknowledged the $4.5 billion backlog does not yet include the adjustment.
Expected tariff-relief qualification remains subject to a Commerce Department process; management expressed confidence but provided no quantified benefit or fallback economics.
Operating expenses rose 21% sequentially, with elevated freight and Jeffersonville ramp-up costs; the company expects normalization but did not provide a firm margin bridge.
Recurrent Energy's Q2 operating loss included a $24 million impairment tied to a Latin American project sale, highlighting execution and asset-quality risk.
Management had not fully studied a new bulk-power-system policy and provided only general assurances about compliance, leaving potential storage supply-chain exposure unresolved.
Forward outlook
gross margin
13.5–15.5 pct
Q3 2026
official guidance
revenue
—
FY 2026
official guidance
gross margin
—
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$1.32
Est. revenue
1.4B