revenue
9.75–10.75 $billion
Q4 2026
official guidance
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
Last · NasdaqGS$446.63-17.61 (-3.79%)close · yahoo · 17h ago
Market cap$354.44B793.6M sh
P/E · TTM38.5fwd 24.2 · eps 11.59
Beta1.59vs S&P 500
Div yield0.43%annual · TTM
52w range
$203.40$739.67
Volume8.1Msession
| Revenue | $30.8B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $9.1B |
| Net income | $9.3B |
| Free cash flow | $5.6B |
| Operating margin | 29.6% |
| Net margin | 30.1% |
| Return on equity | 36.2% |
| Period | TTM 2026-07-26 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Constructive results support a strong AI-led upcycle:
Q3 revenue reached $9.12B (+25% YoY), non-GAAP EPS was $3.50 (+41%), and Q4 guidance implies $10.25B revenue (+51%) and $4.02 EPS (+85%) at the midpoint. The main tension is execution rather than demand: gross margin is guided flat at 50.4% despite strong volume, due to hiring and ramp costs, while management’s planned capacity doubling by 2028 is explicitly not a revenue forecast; investors should await the October long-term framework before treating this as a durable earnings-reacceleration story.
Near term
Q4 execution is the immediate catalyst: Semiconductor Systems is guided to approximately $7.9B, with strength concentrated in DRAM, leading-edge logic, and advanced packaging.
DRAM is expected to accelerate materially in the second half of calendar 2026, but the magnitude and durability of the ramp remain dependent on customers expanding clean-room capacity.
Margin upside may be delayed by continued hiring and training; management said ramp costs will persist for the next few quarters and characterized longer-term improvement as gradual.
Q1 fiscal 2027 has 14 weeks, which should provide a services benefit but a less-than-ratable equipment benefit while most additional spending is incurred in the quarter.
Longer term
Applied is positioned in the three fastest-growing WFE areas—leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging—which management expects to account for approximately 80% of WFE growth through 2027.
Advanced packaging, hybrid bonding, HBM, and panel-level packaging could expand Applied’s served market, with Broadcom and 10 other EPIC engagements improving early access to future architectures.
AGS has a potentially attractive recurring-growth component: more than 37,000 chambers are connected to AIx, and management expects services growth to remain above the broader installed-base trend.
The capacity investment is substantial: more than 1,500 manufacturing and support hires were added this quarter, with infrastructure being built to support up to double current quarterly system output by 2028. This increases operating leverage if demand persists but raises execution and utilization risk if customer ramps slip.
ICAPS appears to be emerging from digestion, with management now expecting growth in both calendar 2026 and 2027; NAND should grow but remain slower than leading-edge logic, DRAM, and packaging.
Red flags
Analysts repeatedly pressed on gross-margin upside, but management attributed near-term margin stagnation to ramp costs and display mix and provided no quantified timing or magnitude for the eventual recovery.
Management declined to provide a Q1 outlook despite citing unusually strong customer visibility, limiting near-term earnings-model confidence.
The claim that quarterly system output can double by 2028 was clarified as capacity planning, not a revenue or earnings commitment; investors should not capitalize it as forward sales guidance.
Long-term revenue and operating-margin targets were deferred to the October investor event. The call therefore offered strong directional confidence but limited quantified evidence for terminal growth or margin assumptions.
China represented roughly 26% of Semiconductor Systems plus AGS revenue in the prepared remarks and 28% of total company revenue in the takeaways. Expected China growth is tied to 28-nanometer logic, leaving meaningful geographic and policy exposure, although export-control effects were not quantified on the call.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
51 pct
Q4 2026
official guidance
eps diluted
3.82–4.22 $per share
Q4 2026
official guidance
gross margin
50.4 pct
Q4 2026
official guidance
revenue
7.9 $billion
Q4 2026
official guidance
revenue
1.84 $billion
Q4 2026
official guidance
revenue
0.51 $billion
Q4 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
20 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
70 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
50 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
—
FY 2027
official guidance
gross margin
—
FY 2027
management framework
revenue growth
—
FY 2027
management framework
gross margin
—
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2025-12-12
- Customer Concentration
- Export Controls
- China Exposure
- Ai Demand
- Advanced Packaging
- Supply Chain Single Source
- Ags Services
Red flags
- Two customers accounted for approximately 19% and 15% of fiscal 2025 net revenue, versus 12% and 11% in fiscal 2024.
- China generated $8.529 billion, about 30% of fiscal 2025 revenue, while U.S. export controls have limited certain products and services to China and other customers outside the U.S.
- The company sold $501 million of accounts receivable in fiscal 2025, creating reliance on customer collections and financial-institution capacity even though credit-loss allowances were not material.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$4.06
Est. revenue
10.3B
Earnings transcripts
- Motley Fool
Applied Materials (AMAT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Q4 2025 earnings call transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Applied Materials and Intel Collaborate to Accelerate Chipmaking Innovations for AI-Driven Computing
- GlobeNewswire
Applied Materials and Besi Expand Strategic Partnership to Advance Next-Generation Packaging for AI Scaling
- GlobeNewswire
Applied Materials and KIOXIA Partner at the EPIC Center to Advance Next-Generation Memory Technology
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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