ALCOA CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• 2026-06-30HoldHOLD: Alcoa is buying South32’s assets for $4.1 billion of equity value, or approximately $4.7 billion including assumed lease liabilities, against roughly $800 million-$900 million of 2025 EBITDA. The strategic fit is credible and the $900 million NPV synergy claim could make the deal attractive, but the thesis depends heavily on long-dated Western Australia mine-planning benefits while adding about $3.1 billion of cash/debt funding and 6% share dilution into a weak alumina market.
• Q2 2023HoldHold: Alcoa remains a cyclical recovery story, but Q2 showed the recovery is not yet investable. Revenue rose 1% to $2.68 billion, while adjusted EBITDA fell $103 million sequentially to $137 million and adjusted net loss was $62 million, or $0.35 per share; the main near-term offset is expected raw-material relief, not stronger pricing. The bull case is operational improvement and lower input costs, but uncertain Western Australia mine approvals, a roughly balanced aluminum market, and continued cash burn keep risk elevated.
• Q3 2017No clear callHold: FMC reset 2025 sharply lower, with FY25 sales guided to $4.15-$4.35 billion, adjusted EBITDA to $870-$950 million and adjusted EPS to $3.26-$3.70, while Q1 EBITDA is expected to fall 28% at the midpoint. The long-term case rests on new active ingredients and diamide repositioning driving 2027 sales of about $5.2 billion and EBITDA of about $1.2 billion, but elevated channel inventory, generic Rynaxypyr pressure, LATAM execution issues and 3.3x net leverage make the recovery too uncertain for a buy after this call.