revenue
2650–2700 $million
FY 2019
official guidance
TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
Last · NYSE$3.45-0.05 (-1.43%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$550.97M159.7M sh
P/E · TTM-1.0fwd -8.4 · eps -3.42 · loss
Beta0.90vs S&P 500
Div yield5.71%annual · TTM
52w range
$2.86$10.59
Volume2.4Msession
| Revenue | $2.9B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-253.0M |
| Net income | $-470.0M |
| Free cash flow | $-281.0M |
| Operating margin | -8.7% |
| Net margin | -16.2% |
| Return on equity | -33.1% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Hold: Tronox delivered resilient Q3 execution, but the investment case still depends on a cyclical TiO2 recovery that management could not quantify.
Revenue fell 8% year over year to $768 million and adjusted EBITDA fell 14% to $184 million, while net leverage remained high at 3.8x; the raised 2019 synergy target of $65 million and stable TiO2 pricing are positives, but zircon demand weakness, delayed Jazan startup and uncertain deleveraging limit upside.
Themes
- Tio2 Demand
- Zircon Weakness
- Cristal Synergies
- Vertical Integration
- Deleveraging
- Jazan Startup
Near term
Q4 zircon volumes may improve as customer inventories normalize; management cited early reordering signs in India.
Q4 working capital is forecast as a $10 million-$15 million use, with management aiming to convert it into a $10 million-$15 million source through collections and inventory actions.
2019 guidance implies revenue of $2.65 billion-$2.70 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $615 million-$635 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.33-$0.44 and free cash flow of $120 million-$135 million on an as-reported basis.
TiO2 pricing was essentially stable sequentially, but Europe showed weaker seasonal demand and China remained slow.
Longer term
Cristal integration is progressing: $45 million of synergies were realized through Q3, with the 2019 target raised to $65 million; management expects to exceed 2020-2022 targets, although it provided no quantified increases.
Internal feedstock sourcing is expected to rise from about 70% in 2019 to 78% in 2020, supporting margin resilience in a tight ore market.
Management targets gross debt of $2.5 billion within two to three years, but the CFO said getting below 3.0x net leverage by end-2020 depends on market recovery.
Jazan's first furnace was pushed to Q3 2020, with potential furnace EBITDA of roughly $50 million-$80 million as the facility ramps.
Vertical integration and margin-stability contracts may reduce cyclicality, but customer adoption is not universal and the benefit remains difficult to quantify.
Red flags
Analysts pressed for 2020 demand and deleveraging visibility, but management gave no 2020 operating guidance and said leverage progress depends on market conditions.
The core recovery thesis remains macro-dependent: management described the downturn as unusually long and expected improvement from only a modest economic rebound, without providing measurable demand indicators.
Zircon sales fell 35% year over year, with volumes down 32%, and the quarter shifted toward lower-value standard-grade product; management characterized this as temporary but offered limited evidence of timing or magnitude of recovery.
Net leverage of 3.8x remains elevated versus the 2x-3x target, while capital projects that could improve EBITDA per ton may compete with deleveraging for cash.
Yanbu quality has improved but still requires further work, and Jazan's prior startup problems and revised timeline increase execution risk.
The $65 million synergy target is realized during the year, but only $21 million had flowed through EBITDA by Q3 and $13 million remained on the balance sheet, leaving execution and timing risk around the promised earnings benefit.
Forward outlook
ebitda
615–635 $million
FY 2019
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.33–0.44 $per share
FY 2019
official guidance
revenue
3015–3065 $million
FY 2019
official guidance
ebitda
680–700 $million
FY 2019
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.25–0.36 $per share
FY 2019
official guidance
ebitda
50–80 $million
FY 2021
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-02-20
- Net Margin Sharply Negative
- Cash Runway Low
Red flags
- Net Margin Sharply Negative — Net margin -16.2%
- Cash Runway Low — Cash runway ~0.7 years
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.18
Est. revenue
849.3M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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