ATLASSIAN CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• Q4 2021BuyBuy: Everest delivered a strong Q1, with operating income of $330 million ($7.34/share), an 18% annualized ROE, $237 million of underwriting profit, and book value per share up 4% to $172.63. The core thesis remains superior underwriting, diversification, low expenses, and disciplined capital deployment, but the 81.9% combined ratio versus 80.0% last year and 5%-15% reinsurance rate declines show that soft-market pressure is intensifying; reported earnings also benefited from $47 million of FX gains, a 12% tax rate, and light catastrophe losses.
• Q4 2022HoldHold: Spire reaffirmed fiscal 2021 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.30-$4.50 and a 5%-7% long-term earnings-growth target, but the investment case is dominated by the unresolved STL Pipeline certificate loss. A forced shutdown could threaten gas service for up to 400,000 St. Louis-area homes and businesses in extreme cold, while the Missouri rate case still has major ROE and capital-structure issues outstanding; Q3 net economic earnings were only $0.06 per share, with Gas Marketing losing just over $5 million.
• Q1 2025No clear callHold: Tronox's Q2 was materially weak, with revenue down 11% year over year to $731 million, adjusted EBITDA down 42% to $93 million, a $55 million free-cash-flow outflow, and net leverage at 6.1x. India and industry capacity cuts offer a recovery path, but management's $410 million-$460 million 2025 EBITDA outlook still requires roughly $102 million-$128 million per quarter in the second half despite Q3 expected to be flat to slightly down versus Q2; competitive pricing pressure and a 60% dividend cut argue against buying ahead of proof of demand recovery.
• Q3 2024BuyValaris is a buy after the call: Q3 revenue was $455 million and adjusted EBITDA $40 million, but contracted backlog rose 40% year over year to $3.2 billion and management guided to $2.25-$2.35 billion of 2024 revenue and $500-$600 million of adjusted EBITDA. The key upside is substantial operating leverage from DS-7, DS-8 and legacy rigs repricing into a tightening floater market; the tension is weak near-term cash conversion, $370 million of planned DS-13/14 purchase capex and recurring downtime execution risk.
• Q2 2024No clear callVerdict: Hold/pass rather than buy aggressively after the call. Docebo still has a credible enterprise and AI product thesis, with approximately $225 million of ARR, strong retention commentary, $90 million of cash and $9 million of Q1 free cash flow; however, management cut full-year growth expectations to 9%-10% as macro-sensitive new-logo activity slows. The AWS Skills Builder relationship is expected to end after 2025 and the CRO/CPO transitions add execution risk, while Agentic AI monetization remains unproven.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: ADM delivered strong reported Q3 earnings of $421 million, or $0.65 per share, with segment operating profit of $696 million, but the result was heavily affected by volatile hedge accounting, LIFO benefits, tax changes and easy prior-year comparisons. The near-term earnings outlook is mixed: ethanol margins are around breakeven amid a blend-wall and capacity problem, while oilseed crush margins face global overcapacity; lower CapEx and eventual startup-cost relief support the longer-term case, but policy and commodity-margin recovery are not yet investable catalysts.
• Q3 2019HoldAtlassian delivered Q3 revenue of $309 million, up 38% year over year, and more than $127 million of free cash flow, with management reporting healthy underlying cloud and data-center demand. However, Q2 price-increase pull-forward is distorting deferred revenue and upcoming comparisons, while heavier R&D hiring and AgileCraft weigh on margins; with premium-cloud adoption, Opsgenie traction, and Jira Align revenue still unquantified, the call supports a hold rather than a clean buy.