revenue
755–765 $million
Q1 2027
official guidance
NUTANIX, INC.
Last · NASDAQ$69.85-3.03 (-4.16%)close · yahoo · 12h ago
Market cap$18.90B270.6M sh
P/E · TTM13.5fwd 26.1 · eps 5.17
Beta0.64vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$34.01$75.98
Volume3.5Msession
| Revenue | $2.7B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $235.2M |
| Net income | $275.9M |
| Free cash flow | $770.9M |
| Operating margin | 8.6% |
| Net margin | 10.0% |
| Period | TTM 2026-04-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong execution is offset by supply-chain risk and decelerating recurring-growth indicators.
Hold.
Nutanix delivered a strong Q4 with revenue of $757.1 million, up 16%, 26.2% non-GAAP operating margin, and FY2026 free cash flow of $840.7 million, but FY2027 guidance implies only 12% growth at the midpoint despite strong bookings. External-storage, NC2, and AI offerings are credible growth accelerants, yet elevated server lead times for the full year, slower renewal-pool growth, 106% NRR, and only modest margin expansion keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy.
Themes
- Server Supply Constraints
- External Storage
- Nc2 Public Cloud
- Agentic Ai
- Neoclouds
- Renewals
Near term
Server lead times and hardware pricing remain elevated through FY2027, with a higher mix of future-start-date orders potentially delaying revenue recognition.
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance of $755 million to $765 million is effectively flat sequentially, while billing duration is expected to rise and could pressure net-new ARR optics.
External-storage bookings, including NetApp, Dell, and EverPure support, and NC2 bookings are the clearest near-term upside catalysts.
The 5% workforce reduction creates near-term restructuring cash costs of approximately $30 million to $35 million in Q1, even as savings are redeployed into AI, cloud-native products, and sales.
Longer term
External storage broadens Nutanix's addressable market by allowing customers to retain existing storage and server infrastructure, potentially improving migration velocity and reducing hardware dependence.
NC2 across AWS and other public-cloud providers, cloud-native products, database services, and agentic AI could diversify growth beyond core HCI, but each remains a smaller business today.
The ChronoScale partnership provides a full-stack entry point into neocloud AI infrastructure; revenue depends on ChronoScale winning and onboarding end customers, making the opportunity promising but unproven.
Management expects further operating-margin expansion over time, but FY2027 guidance of 24% to 25% shows only modest leverage while the company reinvests restructuring savings.
Competitive positioning still needs validation: management described agentic AI adoption as very early, and enterprises may continue using frontier-model vendors and public-cloud services rather than deploying Nutanix-managed infrastructure.
Red flags
Management expects server lead times to remain elevated for the entire fiscal year, with additional price increases possible; the guidance therefore embeds a full-year operational headwind rather than a short disruption.
FY2027 revenue growth guidance is 12% at the midpoint versus 16% ARR growth exiting FY2026, while renewal-pool growth is expected to slow and NRR remains only 106%.
Q4 net-new ARR benefited from unusually low 3.3-year contract duration; management expects duration to be meaningfully higher in Q1, which can make ARR growth look weaker for the same revenue level.
The company is offering more annual-payment and third-party-financing structures. This supports customer flexibility but can reduce upfront cash conversion and makes the 28% FY2027 free-cash-flow margin less impressive than FY2026's 29%.
The large Q4 wins cited were mostly customer examples rather than quantified recurring revenue evidence, and the call did not establish the size or timing of the AI and neocloud contribution.
Forward outlook
operating margin
26–28 pct
Q1 2027
official guidance
revenue
3180–3230 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
revenue growth
12 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
operating margin
24–25 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-09-18
- Subscription Model
- Hybrid Cloud
- Enterprise Ai
- Channel Concentration
- Tax Benefit
- Manufacturing Commitments
- Doj Investigation
Red flags
- FY2026 net income of $1.51 billion is not a clean run-rate measure because the company recognized a $1.20 billion deferred-income-tax benefit from releasing a valuation allowance.
- Channel concentration is material: sales through the top two distributors represented 39% of total FY2026 revenue, while partner agreements are generally non-exclusive.
- The company had $163.0 million of guarantees to its contract manufacturer and $248.3 million of non-cancelable contractual purchase obligations as of July 31, 2026.
- The DOJ is investigating historical federal procurement conduct involving a former employee and third-party partners; the outcome and potential loss remain uncertain.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$0.60
Est. revenue
762.4M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Nutanix Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Financial Results
- GlobeNewswire
Nutanix and ChronoScale Announce Strategic Partnership to Accelerate Enterprise AI Adoption