eps diluted
2.75–2.95 $per share
FY 2020
official guidance
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
Last · NYSE$79.20-1.89 (-2.33%)close · yahoo · 18h ago
Market cap$7.53B95.0M sh
P/E · TTM11.0fwd 10.7 · eps 7.18
Beta0.41vs S&P 500
Div yield2.74%annual · TTM
52w range
$75.03$97.06
Volume2.2Msession
| Revenue | $2.2B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $814.5M |
| Net income | $566.0M |
| Free cash flow | $695,000 |
| Operating margin | 37.3% |
| Net margin | 25.9% |
| Return on equity | 27.2% |
| Period | 2022 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Defensive regulated assets and hedges help, but commodity exposure and balance-sheet uncertainty prevent a clean buy.
Hold: National Fuel maintained fiscal 2020 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.75-$2.95 despite a difficult commodity backdrop, while regulated earnings and the Supply rate settlement support the dividend.
However, Seneca’s production was cut to 230-240 Bcfe, California spending may be deferred, further impairments could reduce equity toward the low-to-mid 40% range, and roughly $150 million of financing is still needed.
Themes
- Commodity Prices
- Seneca Production Cuts
- Regulated Earnings
- Supply Rate Settlement
- Dividend Coverage
- Ceiling Test Impairments
Near term
Natural-gas and oil prices remain the primary earnings swing factors; management assumes $2.05/MMBtu NYMEX gas, $1.65/MMBtu Appalachian gas, and $22.50/barrel WTI for the remaining fiscal year.
Seneca will drop to one Pennsylvania rig this summer; production was already curtailed by 2.7 Bcf in the quarter and approximately 2 Bcf in April.
Empire North remains on track for completion by fiscal year-end and is expected to add $25 million of annual revenue.
Utility bad-debt expense, customer collections, and industrial volumes require monitoring; industrial volumes were down approximately 5%-10%, though this represents only about 10% of companywide utility margin.
FERC approval of Supply Corporation’s rate settlement is expected within one to two months; the settlement adds approximately $35 million initially and another $15 million tied to the FM100 modernization component.
Longer term
The regulated Utility and Pipeline businesses provide the core dividend-support thesis, with Empire North and ongoing system modernization positioned to drive earnings growth into fiscal 2021 and beyond.
Seneca’s Pennsylvania development remains operationally attractive: the latest WDA Utica pad outperformed its type curve by approximately 30%, but the company will not add a rig unless prices reach roughly $2.75/MMBtu and multi-year hedges are available.
Approximately 90% of remaining fiscal 2020 East Division gas production was already sold or hedged, including about 76 Bcf at a realized price of $2.16/Mcfe plus 25 Bcf of firm sales.
California oil is a structural cash-flow risk if low prices persist; management indicated fiscal 2021 activity would be very low and development capital could be deferred.
Red flags
Management explicitly excludes future price-related production curtailments and future ceiling-test impairments from fiscal 2020 guidance, leaving downside not fully captured in the outlook.
A further impairment could pressure the 1974 indenture’s two-times interest-coverage test and temporarily restrict issuance of incremental long-term debt, although management said any exclusion would likely be limited rather than extended.
The company expects approximately $150 million of financing needs after capital spending and dividends, with revolver liquidity as the first funding source.
Management’s answer on acquisitions was noncommittal: it is interested in California and nearby Pennsylvania assets, but stressed that transaction timing and seller willingness remain uncertain.
The dividend is being justified primarily by regulated earnings rather than consolidated free cash flow, while commodity losses and deferred tax asset valuation issues remain unresolved.
Forward outlook
revenue
305 $million
FY 2020
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2022-11-18
- Current Ratio Low
Red flags
- Current Ratio Low — Current ratio 0.39
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$1.04
Est. revenue
472.8M
Earnings transcripts
- Motley Fool
National Fuel Gas (NFG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
- Issuer IR
Q3 2026 earnings call transcript
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
- Issuer IR
National Fuel Gas Company Business Update – Appalachian Acquisition
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
- Issuer IR
Q2 2020 earnings call transcript
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
- Issuer IR
National Fuel to Acquire CenterPoint’s Ohio Natural Gas Utility Business
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
- Issuer IR
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
National Fuel Gas Company Completes Acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio Natural Gas Utility
- GlobeNewswire
National Fuel Declares Quarterly Dividend
- GlobeNewswire
National Fuel Gas Company Announces Timeline to Conclude Evaluation of a Plan to Separate into Two Independent Publicly Traded Companies
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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