CROCS, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026HoldHOLD: IDEX exited the inventory correction with Q4 sales of $789 million, down 6% organically, but record 2023 free cash flow of $627 million and improving short-cycle orders support a measured recovery. FY2024 guidance is only 0%-2% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $8.15-$8.45, while life sciences and analytical instrumentation—over 15% of company revenue—have no modeled recovery, limiting near-term upside.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 was financially strong—revenue rose 3% to $1.1 billion, adjusted EPS increased 5% to $4.23, gross margin reached 61.7%, and free cash flow was $269 million—but management now expects Q3 revenue down 9%-11% with adjusted operating margin of only 18%-19% and has withdrawn full-year guidance. The long-term Crocs brand remains attractive, supported by 16% international growth, sandals and personalization, but near-term demand weakness, shelf-space losses to athletic brands, tariffs and a costly HEYDUDE reset make the risk/reward insufficient for a buy.
• Q1 2025HoldJohnson & Johnson delivered solid underlying momentum—Q3 sales rose 6.3% to $22.5 billion, with Innovative Medicine at $14.6 billion and MedTech at $7.9 billion—but adjusted EPS fell 9% to $2.42 after the $1.25 billion NM26 investment. The pipeline and cardiovascular portfolio support the long-term thesis, yet STELARA biosimilar erosion, China/APAC MedTech pressure, PFA competition, talc litigation and acquisition dilution make this a hold rather than a clean buy.
• Q3 2019HoldHold: Sunstone delivered solid operating momentum, with Q4 adjusted EBITDAre of $69 million and adjusted FFO of $0.26 per diluted share, although results included $9.7 million of COVID business-interruption proceeds. Q1 guidance is $51–$55 million of adjusted EBITDAre and $0.16–$0.18 of adjusted FFO per share; the recovery and multi-year renovation pipeline are attractive, but near-term earnings face $16–$18 million of 2023 renovation displacement, limited margin expansion, and substantial execution risk at the wine-country resorts and Andaz Miami Beach.
• Q2 2019HoldHold: Boeing delivered strong 2016 cash generation ($10.5B operating cash flow, $7.24 core EPS) and guides to 2017 core EPS of $9.10-$9.30 with $10.75B cash flow, supported by a 5,700-aircraft backlog and 737 ramp. However, repeated KC-46 charges, wide-body order softness, and an unresolved 787 order-rate gap keep this from being a clean buy despite improving margins and aggressive shareholder returns.
• Q1 2017BuyBuy: Tyson delivered record Q1 EPS of $1.59, operating income of $982 million, a 10.7% operating margin and $1.1 billion of operating cash flow, while raising FY2017 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.90-$5.05 from $4.70-$4.85. The portfolio and buybacks support continued growth, but the quarter benefited from favorable Beef and Pork conditions; Chicken pricing pressure and an 18-month Prepared Foods investment cycle make the earnings trajectory less clean than the headline suggests.