adjusted eps
5.1–5.4 $per share
FY 2023
official guidance
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
Last · NYSE$18.54-0.10 (-0.54%)close · yahoo · 15h ago
Market cap$3.90B210.3M sh
P/E · TTM19.7fwd 17.5 · eps 0.94
Beta0.36vs S&P 500
Div yield3.03%annual · TTM
52w range
$18.24$22.98
Volume1.1Msession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong hedging and asset quality are offset by the EPS cut, takeaway constraints, and near-term leverage needs.
Hold: National Fuel delivered strong operating execution, with production up 12% year over year to 93.2 Bcfe and more than 90% of remaining production protected, but it cut FY2023 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10-$5.40 and expects lower gas realizations. The integrated asset base, $410 million of pre-acquisition free cash flow and planned $75-$150 million annual capital reduction support the thesis, while constrained takeaway could force maintenance mode from FY2025 and acquisitions add roughly $145 million of near-term cash needs.
Themes
- Natural Gas Prices
- Hedging
- Eastern Development Area
- Takeaway Capacity
- Maintenance Mode
- Rate Cases
Near term
FY2023 guidance now assumes $2.50/MMBtu NYMEX gas for the remaining six months; each $0.25/MMBtu price change affects earnings by approximately $0.09 per share.
Pennsylvania's expected $23 million revenue increase and weather-normalization mechanism should take effect August 1, while New York and Pipeline & Storage rate cases could improve FY2024-FY2025 earnings and cash flow.
The three bolt-on acquisitions add approximately 36,000 acres and 20 MMcf/d of production but require about $145 million of FY2023 cash and will increase financing and interest expense.
Production is expected to rise in Q3, decline in Q4 and early FY2024, then ramp during peak winter months as the company shifts some pad online dates.
Longer term
Without additional firm transportation or significant long-term firm sales, management expects Seneca and Midstream to move toward maintenance production from FY2025 onward, reducing annual capital by roughly $75-$150 million versus current levels.
The Eastern Development Area acreage is contiguous with existing operations and could improve drilling efficiency, lateral lengths, gathering utilization and consolidated free cash flow returns.
The company targets leverage in the high-1x to low-2x range and prioritizes reducing absolute debt before considering buybacks or other incremental shareholder returns.
New York's natural-gas equipment ban for new construction beginning in 2026 is not expected to materially affect near-term results because existing buildings are excluded and roughly 90% of the service territory already uses natural gas.
Red flags
Management did not provide a defined maintenance-mode production or capital target, leaving the post-FY2024 growth profile and earnings power difficult to underwrite.
The growth plan depends on access to premium markets; management acknowledged that no new build infrastructure is expected to be announced and completed by 2025, creating a structural takeaway constraint.
The EPS guidance reduction reflects weaker gas realizations, warmer utility weather and higher interest expense, while the acquisitions increase near-term funding requirements.
The call contained limited analyst pushback, so key risks around long-term market access, acquisition returns and the durability of regulated returns remain only lightly tested.
Forward outlook
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.10
Est. revenue
346.5M
Earnings transcripts
- Motley Fool
MDU Resources (MDU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
- Issuer IR
Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
- Issuer IR
Transcript of Q2 2026, PDF file
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast of Q2 2026, Online link
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Download PDF, MDU Resources to Webcast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call, July 16, 2026
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags