revenue
6150–6270 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC.
Last · NYSE$204.24+1.89 (+0.93%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$8.55B41.9M sh
P/E · TTM18.8fwd 14.0 · eps 10.87
Beta1.26vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$100.30$254.99
Volume1.2Msession
| Revenue | $5.7B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $452.9M |
| Net income | $355.9M |
| Free cash flow | $398.3M |
| Operating margin | 7.9% |
| Net margin | 6.2% |
| Return on equity | 87.7% |
| Period | TTM 2026-03-25 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Operationally bullish, but the call supports a selective buy rather than chasing:
Q4 revenue rose 5.1% to $1.536 billion, adjusted EPS increased 23% to $3.07, and Chili’s delivered +5.6% comps with +1.5% traffic. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $6.15-$6.27 billion of revenue and $12.60-$13.40 of adjusted EPS, but includes a 53rd week worth approximately 2% of revenue and $0.70 of EPS; the key tension is whether Big Crispy-led traffic can persist while Brinker continues reinvesting rather than maximizing near-term margin.
Themes
- Chilis Turnaround
- Big Crispy
- Same Store Sales
- Traffic Growth
- Maggianos Weakness
- Restaurant Reimages
Near term
July and August traffic reportedly accelerated above Q4 levels, but management declined to provide a quarter-to-date comp; the next earnings report must validate that momentum.
Big Crispy volume reached 55 sandwiches per restaurant per day versus 20 before launch and is still building, making sustained demand and repeat visits the primary near-term catalyst.
Commodity inflation is modeled at roughly 4% in Q1, moderating to 1% by Q4, while pricing is expected to be only slightly above 3% for the year; food-cost normalization and labor efficiency will determine whether margin lands above the guided range.
The 53rd operating week provides an EPS tailwind of approximately $0.70, which makes underlying earnings growth less strong than the headline FY2027 guidance suggests.
The $350 million bond redemption should reduce interest expense, while the expanded $750 million repurchase authorization supports per-share earnings but increases the importance of balance-sheet discipline.
Longer term
Chili’s has produced 21 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, a 50% three-year cumulative comp, and approximately $5 million AUV; this is meaningful evidence that the turnaround is broader than a single product launch.
The long-term growth algorithm is shifting toward unit expansion, with modest FY2027 openings but a planned acceleration in FY2028-FY2029 across the Southeast, California, Texas, Florida, and other whitespace markets.
Throughput initiatives could extend the runway: management cited at least three years of dining-room process opportunity and identified off-premise, representing roughly 25% of business, as a largely untapped frontier.
Reimaging 60-80 restaurants in FY2027 and moving toward a 10% annual fleet cadence could support traffic and AUV, but the return on that capital remains insufficiently quantified.
Management expects restaurant-level margin improvement to moderate to 20-40 basis points on a 52-week basis because it is prioritizing value, food, service, and atmosphere reinvestment; this supports durability but limits near-term operating leverage.
Red flags
Maggiano’s remains structurally weak: Q4 comps fell 2.5% on a 5.3% traffic decline, and management admitted the turnaround is progressing slower than planned. FY2027 assumes flat revenue and flat profit, leaving little evidence of a recovery.
Management did not disclose the purchase price for the 12 acquired Chili’s franchise restaurants, described them as below-average performers, and said the deal should have roughly flat EPS impact after eliminating existing royalties.
When pressed on the higher reimage spending, management could not yet provide per-restaurant costs; the first 250 reimages are expected to be more expensive, leaving the return profile of the $265-$285 million FY2027 capex plan unclear.
The company gave no precise Q1 comp figure despite saying July and August accelerated materially. That limits investors’ ability to distinguish durable demand from a temporary promotional or product-launch benefit.
Big Crispy is outperforming expectations, but management’s competitive evidence is largely based on customer reviews, social media, and the broad claim of being 'better than fast food'; the call did not quantify incremental profitability, retention, or durable share gains against QSR competitors.
The decision to remove guest-satisfaction metrics from manager bonuses and focus incentives on sales and profit may improve execution and flow-through, but could create a longer-term service-quality risk that management has not quantified.
Forward outlook
adjusted eps
12.6–13.4 $per share
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-08-19
- Chilis Growth
- Maggianos Weakness
- Restaurant Traffic
- Commodity Inflation
- Debt Refinancing
- Share Repurchase
- Restaurant Impairments
Red flags
- Maggiano’s comparable sales declined 3.9%, driven by a 9.3% traffic decline, while restaurant capacity fell 3.1%; five underperforming Maggiano’s restaurants contributed to $18.0 million of fiscal 2026 impairment charges.
- The $350.0 million 8.25% notes were redeemed for $378.9 million and funded through the revolving facility; finance lease obligations were $98.0 million and the company had $34.1 million of undrawn standby letters of credit.
- Food and beverage costs increased 0.6 percentage points of company sales, primarily from 0.9 points of unfavorable commodity costs and 0.8 points of unfavorable menu mix, partly offset by 1.1 points of pricing.
- Brinker had $7.5 million of outstanding lease guarantees or secondary lease liability for divested restaurants, and it has received lease-default notices and been named in related lawsuits.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$2.41
Est. revenue
1.5B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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