revenue
116–120 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
ALAMAR BIOSCIENCES, INC.
Last · NASDAQ$25.37+1.85 (+7.87%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$1.76B69.4M sh
P/E · TTM-21.1fwd -56.2 · eps -1.20 · loss
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$18.85$39.61
Volume467.0Ksession
| Revenue | $55.5M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-25.9M |
| Net income | $-34.5M |
| Free cash flow | $-35.9M |
| Operating margin | -46.7% |
| Net margin | -62.2% |
| Return on equity | -11.0% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Constructive quarter, but not a clean buy signal:
Q2 revenue rose 82% to $29.4 million, consumables grew 147% to $15.5 million, and gross margin reached 60%. The bull case is accelerating instrument adoption and recurring consumables, backed by $256.3 million of cash; the tension is that operating expenses rose 89%, net loss widened to $13.2 million, Q3 guidance is only low-single-digit sequential growth, and near-term margins are expected to retreat to the mid-to-high 50s.
Themes
- Revenue Growth
- Consumables Pull Through
- Argo Ht Installed Base
- Gross Margin Volatility
- Tap Revenue
- Large Cohort Studies
Near term
FY2026 revenue guidance is $116 million-$120 million, but management expects only a modest, defined as low-single-digit, sequential increase in Q3 revenue.
TAP revenue should continue into Q3 but below Q2's unusually strong level, reducing confidence that the 49% service-revenue growth rate is repeatable.
New placements are mostly going to new customers, which should expand the future consumables base but temporarily pressure reported pull-through.
Large cohort projects are spread across multiple quarters; some revenue is contemplated in 2026 guidance, with the remainder expected to phase into the first half of 2027.
Longer term
The investment case depends on converting ARGO HT placements into durable consumables pull-through; management targets more than $400,000 of annual pull-through per instrument and at least 100 new instruments in 2026.
Biopharma represented 42% of Q2 revenue and is strategically important because management says these customers tend to run larger, sustained cohort studies.
The expanded Alzheimer's Disease Data Initiative/Gates Ventures collaboration, including 86,000 additional samples and a 21,000-sample national initiative, could strengthen platform validation and future demand, but it is not yet evidence of equivalent commercial revenue.
The diagnostic opportunity remains a multi-step option rather than an operating business: Alamar still must develop ARGO HT/DX, obtain FDA marketing authorization, and secure partners with clinical, regulatory, reimbursement and commercial capabilities.
Gross margin could improve structurally with consumable mix and manufacturing scale, but the near-term range is dependent on the mix of instruments, consumables and services.
The platform's moat is not yet proven commercially; management relies heavily on sensitivity, targeted panels, publications and a future clinical translation pathway, while the call provided limited quantified evidence of competitive displacement or pricing power.
Red flags
Management declined to provide quarterly pull-through because new placements can cause quarter-to-quarter volatility; the $400,000 target is annual and therefore masks near-term utilization variability.
The cited $5 million-$6 million per-instrument pull-through ceiling is theoretical, based on three plates per day and five days per week, rather than demonstrated customer utilization.
Q2's 60% gross margin is not a reliable run-rate: management expects near-term fluctuation in the mid-to-high 50% range.
Operating expenses grew faster than revenue, with SG&A up 129% and stock-based compensation rising to $3.3 million from $0.7 million; the IPO-funded cash balance may support growth but does not resolve the path to profitability.
TAP growth was driven primarily by larger custom assay-development projects and is explicitly not intended to be a long-term service business, leaving a risk that current service growth overstates recurring demand.
The company offered no quantified 2027 revenue, margin, cash-burn or FDA-authorization timing framework, despite positioning clinical diagnostics as a major long-term opportunity.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
59 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
—
Q3 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.19
Est. revenue
30.2M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Alamar Biosciences Names Former Grail CEO Bob Ragusa to Board of Directors and Expands Leadership Team
- GlobeNewswire
Alamar Biosciences Expands Global Partnership with Alzheimer’s Disease Data Initiative and Gates Ventures
- GlobeNewswire
Alamar Biosciences Partners with Leading Research Universities to Launch National Initiative Advancing Blood-Based Biomarkers for Neurodegenerative Diseases
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags