revenue
5 $million
FY 2026
management framework
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
Last · OsloNOK 1.95+0.01 (+0.52%)live · yahoo · 27m ago
Market capNOK 43.4M22.3M sh
P/E · TTM-0.4fwd -4.1 · eps -5.07 · loss
Beta1.04vs S&P 500
Div yield6.22%annual · TTM
52w range
NOK 1.88NOK 14.60
Volume36.8Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Cash-return optionality is attractive, but proceeds, timing and residual-asset value remain insufficiently defined.
Hold: 2025 execution improved, with like-for-like revenue up 3% to $10.6 million, operating profit up 17% to $8.0 million and margin reaching 76%, while free cash ended at $9 million.
The investment case now depends mainly on closing Project Merlin in late Q2 2026 and returning an unspecified amount of proceeds around July; permitting risk, undisclosed sale economics and a residual portfolio expected to generate only about $1 million of group EBITDA keep this from being a clean buy.
Themes
- Project Merlin
- Capital Distribution
- Guatemala Permitting
- Asset Divestments
- Cash Preservation
- Residual Portfolio
Near term
Completion of the remaining Guatemala permitting process, testing and commissioning; management targets closing Project Merlin toward the end of Q2 2026.
Shareholder approval in May and the required two-month Dutch waiting period determine whether capital distributions can begin around July.
Project Merlin sale proceeds and the eventual distribution amount were not disclosed.
2026 overhead is budgeted to decline materially, supporting cash preservation while divestments proceed.
Longer term
After Project Merlin, Mexico, Colombia and an El Salvador development project remain; management intends to divest them but gave no reliable timeline.
The remaining operating projects are not expected to support MPC Energy Solutions as a sustainable standalone company.
Residual project debt, particularly in Mexico, can prevent profitable projects from distributing cash and may cause the group to draw down free cash reserves.
The 2025 improvement demonstrates better plant economics, but future shareholder returns depend more on asset-sale execution than on recurring operating growth.
Red flags
Guatemala permitting remains subject to new regulatory requests and has already been difficult to schedule; the Q2 closing target is conditional.
The company did not quantify the Project Merlin purchase price, expected net proceeds, or the amount per share to be returned.
Management acknowledged that residual projects may generate roughly $1 million of group EBITDA but likely neutral group free cash flow after financing and holding-company needs.
Cash will diminish if Mexico and Colombia divestments take longer than expected, while management would not commit to a full wind-down or provide a timetable for the remaining sales.
Forward outlook
ebitda
3.2 $million
FY 2026
management framework
ebitda
1 $million
FY 2026
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
3:20 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.22
Est. revenue
1.9M
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer webcast
Webcast H1
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
- Issuer webcast
20260730 MPCES H1 2026 Results Webcast
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
- Issuer webcast
20260506 MPCES Q1 2026 Results Webcast
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast Q1
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast - Year-end (2025 Q4)
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
- Issuer IR
Transcript - Year-end (2025 Q4)
MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS N.V.
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags