SCHAEFFLER INDIA LIMITED

Recommendation history

• 2026-02-25HoldHold: Q1 revenue rose 18.8% year on year to INR 2,507 crore and EBITDA margin was 19.3%, but revenue fell 5.1% sequentially as Bearings and Industrial Solutions declined 14.3% and free cash flow dropped to INR 137 crore. Automotive Technologies grew 30.8% and exports are expected to grow 10%-12% in CY26, but liquidity stress, intensified competition, inventory buildup and six-quarter price recovery make the risk-reward insufficient for a fresh buy.
• 2025-11-03HoldHold after a strong Q4: revenue was INR 2,643 crore, up 26.9% year over year, EBITDA margin was 19.1%, and free cash flow was INR 254 crore. The bull case is broad automotive and industrial momentum plus e-mobility wins, but export growth is expected to moderate to 5%-10% in 2026, utilization is already above 85%, and Koovers remains loss-making.
• 2025-07-25HoldHold: Q3 revenue rose 13.9% year over year to INR 2,360 crores, EBITDA margin reached 20.2%, and PAT was INR 306.7 crores, but the earnings quality is mixed. Automotive momentum, 79% localization, and INR 223 crores of free cash flow support the bull case; weak Bearings and Industrial Solutions growth, low-base export growth, and an unprofitable KRSV platform argue against buying aggressively.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 revenue rose 10.1% year over year to INR 2,282 crore, EBITDA reached INR 449 crore at a strong 19.7% margin, PAT grew 17% to INR 296 crore, and free cash flow was INR 287 crore. The cash generation, 23% six-month export growth, and 78%-79% localization support the bull case, but passenger-vehicle demand is weakening, Koovers remains loss-making at a 15% EBITDA margin, and management provided little quantification on e-axle ramp-up or new-plant returns.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Q1 revenue rose 14.1% year over year to INR 2,110 crores, EBITDA margin reached a record 19.3% and free cash flow was INR 237 crores. The bull case is strong mix, localization and recovering exports, but export orders are short term, KRSV remains loss-making and management gave no quantified forward earnings outlook.
• Q4 2025HoldHOLD: FY24 standalone revenue rose 11.8% to INR 8,076 crore and EBITDA margin was 18.5%, but Q4 revenue was only 0.5% above Q3, free cash flow was INR 224 crore for the year, and Koovers remained loss-making. The industrial and automotive pipeline is encouraging, but the investment case still depends on a Europe export recovery and better capex monetization.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: Q3 revenue rose 12.1% year over year, EBITDA was INR 382.8 crores at an 18.5% margin, and PAT was INR 247 crores, but sequential revenue was flat and the margin slipped from 18.9% a year ago. Diversified industrial demand and strong domestic execution offset weak passenger vehicles and European exports, yet 8-8.5% capex, a loss-making Koovers, and unproven EV and export ramps make this a wait-for-proof story rather than a clean buy.