SAGAR CEMENTS LIMITED

Recommendation history

• 2025-12-01HoldHold: FY25 consolidated revenue fell 10% to ₹2,257.6 crore and EBITDA declined 46% to ₹162.5 crore, while shareholders flagged negative EPS/ROE, higher liabilities and unclear returns from expansion. Management said the worst of the South Indian price downturn is behind the company and reiterated capacity ambitions of 15 mt by FY30 and 20 mt by FY35, but provided no FY26 financial guidance or quantified profitability recovery.
• 2025-05-16HoldHold: the call points to a potentially sharp near-term recovery, but not yet a clean buy. Q4 revenue fell 7% to ₹658 crore and EBITDA dropped to ₹37 crore, while management expects FY26 volume near 6.0–6.1 million tonnes and believes EBITDA per tonne can reach ₹3,500+ in Q1, versus ₹3,291 in Q4. The thesis depends on April’s ₹40–60 per-bag gross price increases holding, Andhra Cement stabilising, and promised ₹250–300/tonne cost savings being delivered.
• Q4 2020HoldHold: Q4 revenue rose 24% YoY to ₹622 crore, but EBITDA fell 36% to ₹39 crore and margin halved to 6% from 12%, showing that volume growth has not yet translated into earnings. Management targets FY24 volume of 6.5 million tonnes and EBITDA above ₹400 crore, supported by ₹50/ton fuel-cost savings in Q1 and ₹100/ton from Q2, but weak southern pricing, peak net debt of roughly ₹1,250 crore and execution risk make the recovery case premature.
• Q3 2020HoldHold: Q3 revenue rose 73% YoY to ₹576 crore, but EBITDA was only ₹48 crore versus ₹47 crore last year, with margin collapsing to 8% from 14% and a ₹27 crore loss. The bull case is lower costs and capacity-led volume growth; however, pricing remained flat with a negative bias despite strong demand, while Andhra Cement adds material execution and leverage risk before its economics are disclosed.
• Q2 2020HoldHold: Q2 was materially weak despite 29% YoY revenue growth to ₹475 crore; EBITDA fell 91% to ₹6 crore and margin collapsed to 1% from 16%, as fuel cost rose to ₹2,066/ton from ₹1,263. The recovery case rests on ₹15–₹20/bag recent price increases and management’s expected ₹250/ton Q3 power-and-fuel saving, but the earlier ₹400 crore FY23 EBITDA indication is no longer credible and no replacement guidance was provided.
• 2022-07-25HoldHold: Q1 FY23 was materially weak despite 42% YoY revenue growth to ₹558 crore; EBITDA fell 43% to ₹61 crore, margin compressed to 11% from 27%, and the company reported a ₹13 crore loss. Management expects Q2 costs to be flat and fuel-cost relief only from mid-to-late Q3, but pricing remains inadequate, demand is seasonally soft, and the proposed Andhra Cement acquisition adds execution and leverage risk.
• Q4 2020HoldHold: FY22 revenue rose 16% to Rs.1,597 crore, but EBITDA fell 31% to Rs.276 crore; Q4 EBITDA margin collapsed to 12% from 25% and the company reported a Rs.19 crore loss. Management targets 5 million tonnes of FY23 volume versus roughly 3.6 million tonnes in FY22, but pricing is largely flat in core southern markets while costs remain elevated; the upside depends on ramp-up and an unannounced acquisition funded by Rs.500 crore of debt at about 12%.