ebitda
—
FY 2026
official guidance
ØRSTED A/S
Last · XETRA€16.86-0.71 (-4.04%)live · yahoo · 32m ago
Market cap€22.3B1.32B sh
P/E · TTM-8.9fwd — · eps -1.90 · loss
Beta0.58vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
€15.07€22.80
Volume586session
| Revenue | DKK 48.3B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | DKK 7.3B |
| Net income | DKK 2.8B |
| Free cash flow | DKK -21.4B |
| Operating margin | 15.2% |
| Net margin | 5.9% |
| Return on equity | 1.9% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Execution is improving, but returns and valuation support are not yet sufficiently clear for a clean buy.
Hold: Ørsted is executing well, with H1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees of DKK 15bn, 2026 guidance above DKK 28bn, and 2027 guidance above DKK 32bn.
However, the investment case remains balanced by low 6.6% adjusted ROCE, DKK 50–55bn of 2026 gross investment, opaque work-in-progress economics, aggressive auction pricing, and continuing U.S. regulatory and tariff risks.
Themes
- Offshore Wind Execution
- 2026 Guidance
- Capital Allocation
- European Auctions
- Us Offshore Risk
- Roce
Near term
Commissioning milestones are concentrated in H2: Borkum Riffgrund 3 in Q3, Greater Changhua 2b and 4 toward the back end of Q3, Revolution Wind in H2, and initial Hornsea 3 turbine installation planned for Q4.
The DKK 28bn-plus EBITDA target still requires a stronger H2 than H1; management cited wind, power prices, completion timing and percentage-of-completion effects as uncertainties.
Monitor Changhua 2b export-cable repair and energization, Taiwan weather windows, Revolution Wind vessel availability, and Hornsea 3's September back-feed milestone.
Revolution Wind tax-credit monetization is progressing, but Sunrise Wind marketing is not expected to begin until early 2027.
The initial 2026 dividend, payable in 2027, is expected to be modest and toward the lower end of the DKK 2–5 per-share consensus range.
Longer term
The 8.1 GW construction portfolio is the main near-term earnings engine, but management acknowledged EBITDA growth may flatten at the back end of the decade before new projects reach operation.
European offshore wind remains structurally attractive, with Germany returning to two-way CfDs and multiple European tenders expected over the next 12 months; prospective CODs are generally in the early 2030s.
Capital allocation discipline is critical: management said it will not sacrifice value to fill a potential late-decade project gap, leaving growth dependent on profitable centralized tenders, proprietary auctions, or project-specific M&A.
The U.S. onshore pipeline includes 6–7 GW qualifying through 2029, but offshore wind remains the capital-allocation priority and management declined to guide on contribution or volumes.
Balance-sheet repair is progressing: FFO to adjusted net debt was approximately 45% versus a target above 30%, with liquidity above DKK 115bn and a commitment to investment-grade status.
Red flags
Management did not quantify work in progress despite analyst pressure; this leaves the amount of capital tied up before assets contribute to earnings and the route from 6.6% ROCE to materially higher returns difficult to assess.
The Danish auction result highlighted aggressive competition from Vattenfall, while management avoided discussing clearing prices or project-level returns. Future growth could require foregoing volume or accepting lower returns.
U.S. offshore exposure remains sensitive to regulatory and legal risk, possible 50% tariffs under Section 232, and higher long-dated interest rates; the quarter included a DKK 1.2bn non-cash impairment on a U.S. offshore project.
The Hornsea 3 grid-connection risk has not disappeared despite management's confidence in the September back-feed date.
The dividend restart is strategically positive but likely too small to materially offset execution, financing, and return-on-capital risks in the near term.
Forward outlook
ebitda
—
FY 2027
official guidance
revenue
50–55 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest ANNUAL · 2026-09-02
- Cash Runway Low
Red flags
- Cash Runway Low — Cash runway ~1.0 years
Upcoming earnings
4:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
13.0B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags