revenue growth
25–27 pct
FY 2023
official guidance
KINAXIS INC.
Last · —$187.79+6.10 (+3.36%)live · yahoo · 3m ago
Market cap——
P/E · TTM44.4fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
Loading chart…
OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Growth visibility outweighs the clearly guided near-term margin compression.
Buy: Kinaxis enters 2023 with SaaS revenue guidance of 25%-27%, approximately $259 million at the midpoint, and 86% of that midpoint already covered by RPO.
The key tension is a planned adjusted EBITDA margin trough of 13%-15% as high-margin term-license revenue declines and sales, cloud, and services investment rises, but the unusually strong backlog, high retention, and expanding customer base support durable growth.
Themes
- Saas Growth
- Rpo Visibility
- Margin Investment
- Supply Chain Execution
- Public Cloud
- Mid Market
Near term
2023 total revenue guidance is $420-$430 million, but adjusted EBITDA margin is guided to 13%-15% versus 22% in 2022.
The high-margin subscription term-license revenue cycle is expected to fall to $12-$14 million in 2023, while professional-services mix and headcount investment pressure gross margin.
86% of the midpoint of 2023 SaaS guidance was already in RPO, providing unusually strong near-term revenue visibility.
Execution capacity is a near-term constraint: Kinaxis and its partners are investing to staff deployments for record customer additions.
Longer term
ARR grew 24% year over year to $274 million, with constant-currency ARR growth accelerating to 26%, supporting the case for continued SaaS acceleration.
The customer base grew 40% including acquisitions, new-customer wins rose approximately 25%, and roughly 40% of new wins came from mid-market customers.
MPO expands Kinaxis from planning into supply-chain execution, while public-cloud delivery through Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud broadens capacity and potential reach.
The land-and-expand thesis depends on RapidStart converting smaller and new customers into broader deployments; management said 20%-30% of new customers recently chose RapidStart and then expanded.
Red flags
Management acknowledged macro caution, including board-level approval requirements and layoffs at major technology companies, despite unchanged quantitative demand metrics.
The margin recovery is largely a management projection: improvement is expected from 2024, but the call did not provide a dated path to the longer-term targets.
Professional-services delivery depends on scaling Kinaxis's partner ecosystem and consultant capacity; partner resources were described as tapped out.
MPO integration, retail expansion, AI initiatives, and the public-cloud transition add execution risk while the company is simultaneously accelerating sales investment.
Forward outlook
revenue
259 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue
420–430 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
gross margin
60–62 pct
FY 2023
official guidance
ebitda
13–15 pct
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue
12–14 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.98
Est. revenue
152.1M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags