TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Recommendation history

• H1 2026HoldHold: Telstra tightened FY26 underlying EBITDAaL guidance to $8.2-$8.4 billion, while first-half mobile EBITDA grew 4% to $2.7 billion and cash earnings grew 17%. The bull case is pricing, cost productivity and Aura demand; the bear case is muted second-half service-revenue growth, a potential $1.3 billion spectrum-price gap and still-unproven Enterprise and broadband stabilisation.
• FY 2025HoldHOLD: FY25 underlying EBITDA rose 4.6% to $8.6 billion, cash EPS rose 12% to 22.4 cents, and free cash flow before strategic investment rose 5.7% to $3.4 billion. The $1 billion buyback and FY26 cash EBIT guidance of $4.55-$4.75 billion support the bull case, but subdued mobile growth, higher churn, ongoing DAC/calling declines, satellite costs and structurally higher D&A limit near-term upside.
• H1 2025HoldHold: first-half EBITDA rose 6% to $4.2 billion, NPAT rose 7.1% to $1.1 billion and free cash flow after leases rose 7.6% to $1.1 billion, supported by pricing and cost cuts. The network moat and capital returns are credible, but slower subscriber growth, persistent Enterprise and fixed-line declines, and delayed fibre investment make the upside insufficiently clear.
• FY 2024HoldHold: FY24 underlying EBITDA rose 3.7% to A$8.2 billion, underlying NPAT rose 7.5% to A$2.3 billion, and FY25 EBITDA guidance is A$8.5–8.7 billion. Mobile and infrastructure are durable growth engines, but Fixed Enterprise EBITDA fell 67% to A$136 million and its recovery will take years, while A$1.6 billion of strategic projects still carry execution and cash-flow risk.
• H1 2024HoldHold: first-half underlying EBITDA rose 3.1% to $4.0 billion and EPS rose 12% to 8.4 cents, but Telstra cut FY24 underlying EBITDA guidance to $8.2-$8.3 billion as NAS deteriorated sharply. Mobile, infrastructure and cost discipline support the bull case, while Enterprise execution, cyclical demand and a 9-cent dividend against 8.4-cent half-year EPS keep this from being a clean buy.
• FY 2023HoldHold: FY23 underlying EBITDA rose 9.6% to $8.0 billion and EPS rose 16% to 16.7 cents, but the result is offset by a 16.2% decline in data and connectivity revenue, accelerating calling weakness, and withdrawn FY25 margin ambitions in Fixed C&SB and NAS. Mobile and infrastructure provide a credible growth floor, yet higher capex, debt costs, and execution-heavy cost savings do not justify a clean buy after this call.
• H1 2023HoldHold: first-half income rose 6.4%, EBITDA 11.4% to A$3.9 billion, and EPS 27.1% to 7.5 cents, but the reported growth was led by mobile and the Digicel Pacific acquisition. Fixed Enterprise revenue fell 14.4%, income guidance moved to the low end, and the recovery depends on difficult cost delivery and customer retention rather than a clean earnings reacceleration.