revenue
3–3.4 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
NEBIUS GROUP
Last · NASDAQ$226.39+15.76 (+7.48%)stale · yahoo · 93h ago
Market cap$61.55B238.4M sh
P/E · TTM-3234fwd -75.5 · eps -0.07 · loss
Beta1.44vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
$73.52$299.86
Volume15.0Msession
| Revenue | $529.8M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-611.7M |
| Net income | $82.5M |
| Free cash flow | $-3.7B |
| Operating margin | -115.5% |
| Net margin | 15.6% |
| Return on equity | 1.8% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Constructive, but not a clean buy after the call:
Q2 revenue reached $582.3 million (+454% YoY), AI Cloud revenue was $574.9 million, and group adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million at a 41% margin. The bull case is strong demand, $3 billion ARR, four landmark contracts averaging over $1 billion, and premium pricing of $40 million-$50 million per MW for short-term capacity; the tension is that $5.7 billion of quarterly CapEx, $2.8 billion of ATM equity issuance, a $20 billion-$25 billion FY2026 CapEx plan, and execution delays leave financing, dilution, and deployment risk substantial.
Themes
- Ai Cloud Growth
- Gpu Capacity
- Pricing Power
- Customer Prepayments
- Asset Backed Financing
- Equity Dilution
Near term
Capacity deployed late in Q2 is expected to begin contributing in Q3, but management acknowledged a several-month lag from connected power through commissioning, cluster deployment, and customer onboarding.
The New Jersey/Vineland site remains subject to a pending site-layout amendment hearing. Management expects approval, but the hearing adjourned without a vote and could affect execution timing.
Short-term training deals and the capacity auction may provide pricing upside, with the auction clearing 15% above Nebius' prior highest Blackwell price and 20% above its pipeline pricing; these initiatives currently use only a small portion of capacity.
Vera Rubin deployment is expected to begin late 2026 or early 2027, creating both a utilization opportunity and a technology-transition execution test.
Longer term
Management raised contracted power to 5 GW by year-end 2026 and expects to deploy more than 1 GW of new capacity annually from 2027, but this depends on power access, construction, commissioning, and customer onboarding rather than contracted power alone.
The asset-light model could improve capital efficiency by having partners finance, build, and operate facilities while Nebius supplies its platform and demand. However, it is still at an early stage despite management citing dozens of inquiries.
The platform strategy is broadening from training into inference, post-training, grounding, and agentic workloads through Token Factory and acquisitions. Tavily's developer base grew to over 2.5 million, but the call did not quantify the revenue or margin contribution of these businesses.
Management's competitive response to questions about xAI and hyperscalers was largely that the market is expanding and new entrants validate it. The call provided limited evidence that Nebius has a durable cost, supply, or technology moat against hyperscalers and other GPU clouds.
Red flags
The funding plan is not as self-financing as the presentation suggests: Q2 CapEx was $5.7 billion versus $2.3 billion of operating cash flow, while the company issued $2.8 billion of equity through the ATM and is considering additional equity-linked and corporate debt financing.
The $40 billion committed backlog and more than $9 billion of expected customer prepayments are central to the financing thesis, but the call gave limited detail on customer concentration, cancellation protections, take-or-pay terms, or the timing and collectability of those commitments.
Four Q2 contracts averaged more than $1 billion each, increasing dependence on a small number of large AI customers even as management emphasizes diversification. Only Reflection and Cohere were named; the other counterparties were described generically.
Management repeatedly emphasized pricing upside and 2027 excitement, but formal 2027 revenue guidance was deferred. The $7 billion-$9 billion FY2026 ARR target depends heavily on second-half capacity deployment despite the acknowledged power-to-revenue gap.
There is an unresolved financial disclosure inconsistency: prepared remarks described Nebius AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA as $285.7 million, while the transcript correction stated $236 million. This should be reconciled before relying on segment profitability.
The call did not substantively address competitive displacement by frontier-model vendors or hyperscalers; the answer to the xAI pricing question was primarily that the market is large enough for multiple providers, not evidence of retained share or customer economics.
Forward outlook
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 20-F · 2026-04-30
- Cash Runway Low
- Sbc Revenue Elevated
Red flags
- Cash Runway Low — Cash runway ~1.0 years
- Sbc Revenue Elevated — SBC/Revenue 15.7%
Recent earnings
Reported · 1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Jun 2026
EPS
−$0.68Beat+2.58%
Est. revenue
573.9M