JOHNSON & JOHNSON

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldHold: National Fuel delivered a solid Q1 with adjusted EPS of $2.06 and reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.60-$8.10, supported by 12% production growth and 29% upstream/gathering EBITDA growth. The long-term gas and regulated-utility thesis remains attractive, but the pending Ohio acquisition requires roughly $1.5 billion of new long-term debt, while pipeline takeaway constrains upstream growth and Gen 4/Upper Utica economics remain unproven.
• Q3 2025BuyBuy: Johnson & Johnson delivered a strong Q3, with sales of $24.0 billion, operational growth of 5.4%, and adjusted EPS of $2.80, up 15.7%. The core growth engine is credible—pharmaceutical sales excluding STELARA grew 16%, led by TREMFYA, CARVYKTI, SPRAVATO and newer launches—while FY2025 guidance was raised to $93.2 billion operational sales at the midpoint and reaffirmed at $10.85 adjusted EPS. The key tension is that STELARA erosion, MedTech margin pressure and an 18–24 month Orthopaedics separation still create execution risk; the bullish 2026 outlook remains preliminary rather than formal guidance.
• Q2 2025HoldHold. Teva delivered a strong Q2: revenue was $4.2 billion, up 11% in local currency, adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $0.61; 2024 revenue guidance rose to $16.0-$16.4 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $2.30-$2.50. AUSTEDO, generics and UZEDY support near-term momentum, but 3.3x net debt/EBITDA, the eventual REVLIMID erosion, uncertain SIMLANDI uptake and unproven pipeline launches keep this from being a clean buy.
• Q3 2024HoldJohnson & Johnson delivered solid underlying momentum—Q3 sales rose 6.3% to $22.5 billion, with Innovative Medicine at $14.6 billion and MedTech at $7.9 billion—but adjusted EPS fell 9% to $2.42 after the $1.25 billion NM26 investment. The pipeline and cardiovascular portfolio support the long-term thesis, yet STELARA biosimilar erosion, China/APAC MedTech pressure, PFA competition, talc litigation and acquisition dilution make this a hold rather than a clean buy.
• Q2 2023HoldHold: Q2 revenue fell 11% year over year to $32.0 million, bookings declined 10% to $27.1 million, and FY2025 revenue guidance was cut to $126-$128 million. Cost reductions lifted adjusted EBITDA margin to 27%, while ClearanceJobs remained resilient at 1% revenue growth and 45% margin; however, Dice revenue fell 18% and its recovery remains unproven.
• Q1 2023HoldHold: Voya delivered solid Q2 operating earnings of $160 million, or $0.79 per diluted share, with 11.5% trailing ROE, $775 million of excess capital, and $267 million of quarterly repurchases. However, the investment case remains rate-sensitive: a 1% 10-year Treasury through 2019 would reduce ongoing-business operating earnings by 9% versus baseline and create an additional 80-basis-point headwind to the 2018 ROE target, while CBVA stress economics remain difficult to quantify.