PRUDENTIAL PLC

Recommendation history

• 2026-03-18BuyBuy: Prudential delivered 12% growth in new business profit and adjusted operating profit per share, 15% growth in gross OFSG and dividend per share, and ended 2025 with a strong 221% free-surplus ratio. The 2026 double-digit-growth outlook, $7bn-plus 2024-27 capital-return ambition and $1.2bn buyback support the upside, although agency execution remains the key investment tension: active agents fell 11%, the network is only about two-thirds of its 2027 objective, and Hong Kong market share has declined.
• H1 2023HoldPrudential delivered a strong operational rebound: HY23 new business profit rose 39% to $1.5bn, EEV operating profit increased 22%, and GWS coverage remained robust at 295%. However, gross OFSG fell 2% to $1.4bn and management expects limited OFSG growth during the $1bn capability-investment phase through 2025, making the 2027 ambitions of $4.4-$5.4bn NBP and more than $4.4bn OFSG execution-dependent rather than yet proven; without valuation or analyst challenge in the supplied transcript, the appropriate stance is hold.
• H1 2022HoldHold: Prudential delivered resilient HY22 execution, with APE sales up 9% to US$2.2bn, new business profit of US$1.1bn, IFRS operating earnings up 8% to US$1.7bn, and operating free surplus generation up 12% to US$1.2bn. However, the investment case still relies heavily on long-term Asian growth and a Hong Kong reopening, while embedded value absorbed a US$5.2bn market-related hit and reported profit benefited from a US$945m Hong Kong RBC accounting effect.
• FY 2021HoldHold: Prudential delivered a strong FY21 operating result, with new business profit up 13% to $2.5bn, a 60% margin, IFRS operating profit up 16% to $3.2bn and embedded value per share up 7%. The Asia-Africa strategy is gaining traction, but the investment case remains balanced by CEO succession, uncertain Hong Kong reopening, China comparatives and ongoing Covid claims; without valuation or 2022 earnings guidance, the call is not a clean buy signal.
• H1 2021HoldPrudential delivered a strong HY21 operational result, with APE up 17%, new business profit up 25% to $1.2bn, segment operating profit up 11% to $2.0bn and GWS coverage at a robust 383%. The Asia/Africa strategy is credible, supported by 88% regular-premium sales, growing health and protection exposure and digital distribution, but Covid volatility, the closed Hong Kong–China border and a potential $2.5bn–$3bn equity raise make the near-term risk/reward less compelling; stance: hold.
• H1 2019HoldHold: Prudential delivered strong, diversified Asia-led growth, with Asia APE and NBP up 10% constant currency, IFRS operating profit up 14%, free surplus generation up 13%, and pro forma post-demerger solvency of 340%. However, Jackson remains the valuation swing factor: new business profit fell 30% to just under £350 million, while management proposed diversification away from variable annuities without quantifying the target mix, hedge-cost savings, or future remittances.
• H1 2017BuyBuy: Prudential delivered a strong, broad-based first half, with IFRS operating profit up 5% to £2.358bn, new business profit up 20% to £1.689bn and free surplus generation up 6% to £1.845bn; solvency was a robust 202%. Asia remains the key growth engine and Jackson is gaining share, while the main tension is execution risk around the M&G Prudential combination, DOL/NAIC uncertainty and the capital-intensive UK legacy book.