ARISINFRA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Recommendation history

• 2026-05-12HoldHold: FY26 was strong, with revenue up 39% to INR 1,068 crore, EBITDA doubling to INR 101 crore at a 9.43% margin, PAT reaching INR 60 crore, and operating cash flow turning positive at INR 142 crore. The bull case is 35%-40% FY27 revenue growth, 10%-10.5% EBITDA margins, rising contract-manufacturing utilization, and multi-year visibility; however, management declined to give PAT guidance, competitive moat claims remain largely unproven, and INR 25-50 crore of further deposits plus receivable and execution risk temper the read.
• 2026-02-02HoldHold. Q3 was operationally strong: revenue rose 50% YoY to INR270 crore, EBITDA increased 2.3x to INR30 crore, PAT reached INR18.27 crore, and net working-capital days improved from 116 to 74. The mix shift toward contract manufacturing at 48% of revenue and services supports better economics, but INR385 crore of receivables—including INR50–55 crore outstanding beyond six months—and limited evidence of cash conversion make the stock unsuitable for an aggressive buy until execution is validated.
• 2025-11-13HoldHold: ArisInfra delivered strong Q2 execution—revenue rose 38% YoY to INR241 crore, H1 revenue rose 24% to INR453 crore, EBITDA margin reached 9.34%, and borrowings fell from INR336 crore to INR52 crore. However, operating cash flow remained negative at INR43 crore, with INR126 crore of deposits and roughly INR190 crore tied up in capacity-related advances; the investment case still needs proof that growth converts into cash without increasing working-capital risk.
• 2025-09-29HoldHold: Arisinfra reported FY25 revenue of ₹7,820 million, EBITDA of ₹580 million and a 7.48% margin, while Q1 FY26 income grew 11% and EBITDA margin reached 9.14%. The business is showing improving mix, profitability and balance-sheet strength, but this AGM offered no formal earnings guidance, limited scrutiny, and several growth claims remain dependent on project execution and further working-capital improvement.
• 2025-08-11HoldHold: Q1 FY26 showed meaningful operating improvement—revenue was Rs. 216 crore (+11% YoY), EBITDA Rs. 19.5 crore (+13%) at a 9.2% margin, and reported PAT Rs. 5.1 crore after a roughly Rs. 2.5 crore IPO expense. Debt repayment and IPO-funded growth could lift earnings from Q2, but the 30%-40% growth ambition remains unproven, while receivables of Rs. 350-360 crore, 65-70 days of balances above six months, and an unanswered operating-cash-flow question keep this from being a clean buy.
• 2025-07-16HoldHold. FY25 showed a real turnaround—revenue rose 11% to INR781.98 crore, EBITDA increased 345% to INR57.9 crore at a 7.48% margin, and PAT turned positive at INR6.0 crore—but the quality of growth remains unproven. IPO proceeds reduced debt and should lower finance costs, yet the thesis still depends on ambitious 40%-50% revenue growth, sustained 8%-9% EBITDA margins, and working-capital improvement despite 134-day receivables, a 110-day net working-capital cycle, no long-term customer contracts, and a Q4 margin mix deterioration.