revenue growth
5 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
ALSTOM
Last · Paris€16.32+0.145 (+0.90%)close · yahoo · 11h ago
Market cap——
P/E · TTM27.2fwd 8.4 · eps 0.60
Beta1.06vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
€14.72€30.23
Volume859.1Ksession
Loading chart…
OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Broad execution problems and cash-flow risk outweigh the backlog and liquidity positives.
Sell: Alstom delivered €19.2bn sales (+7% organic), €27.6bn orders and €330m free cash flow, but adjusted EBIT margin fell to roughly 6% as rolling-stock execution deteriorated.
The FY2026-27 outlook for 5% organic growth and 6.5% margin is not enough to offset a potential €1.5bn H1 cash outflow, no reaffirmed cash plan, and expected stable-to-slightly higher net debt; the €100bn backlog remains valuable but its conversion is increasingly unproven.
Themes
- Rolling Stock Execution
- Free Cash Flow
- Project Ramp Up
- Homologation
- Backlog Conversion
- Balance Sheet
Near term
The May 13 full-year results and free-cash-flow bridge could reveal further project provisions or a weaker starting point than the preliminary figures suggest.
H1 FY2026-27 free cash flow is expected to be around negative €1.5bn, with adverse phasing of downpayments, payables and contract liabilities; H2 delivery is therefore critical.
Net debt is expected to be stable or slightly higher over FY2026-27, while rating-agency scrutiny will increase as leverage rises seasonally.
Longer term
Management characterizes the issue as a broad rolling-stock execution problem rather than a handful of projects, particularly across new-product development, homologation and production ramp-up.
Restoring gross margins on the backlog, stated at 18%, is the central recovery requirement; failure would undermine the economics of the €100bn backlog despite strong order intake.
Services and signalling offer potentially more resilient growth and cash generation, but management did not quantify how quickly they can offset rolling-stock weakness.
The company’s multi-local industrial footprint and hundreds of projects make the planned operational turnaround materially harder than a focused single-program recovery.
Red flags
Management could not quantify the number or financial impact of troubled projects and said the review was regional and product-line based rather than a specific programme-by-programme review.
The CFO explicitly declined to reaffirm the prior cash plan and attributed the historical cash shortfall to execution, FX, CapEx and margins; analysts highlighted roughly €2.5bn of adjusted cash burn since the 2021 merger.
The positive full-year cash outlook depends on a very strong H2 after a roughly €1.5bn H1 outflow, but the call provided no detailed bridge or quantified working-capital assumptions.
Management said there was no haircut to contract assets, leaving unresolved questions about whether reported revenue and assets fully reflect project risk.
The hybrid bond’s eventual treatment and potential refinancing or redemption burden were deferred, while the CFO acknowledged that Alstom should ideally operate with net cash.
The expected FY2027 margin recovery to 6.5% remains exposed to the same ramp-up and homologation problems that caused the current miss; the analyst comparison with a main competitor’s high-single-digit free-cash margin underscores the execution gap.
Forward outlook
operating margin
6.5 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
4:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
4.8B
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Alstom S.A.: Alstom wins landmark contract to renew VIA Rail Canada’s long-distance fleet
- Satelight
Fantasy M&A: the recipe for a European champion
- GlobeNewswire
ALSTOM S.A: Alstom to provide 25 additional X’trapolis 2.0 trains in Australia for €270m
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
See plansDocuments
FormReporting forFiledFlags
8-KAlstom S.A.: Alstom remporte un contrat majeur pour le renouvellement de la flotte de trains longue distance de VIA Rail Canada
2026-09-032026-09-0302026-09-032026-09-030